Solution possible in January

Foreign and European diplomatic circles believe that considerable progress in the Cyprus talks was achieved at Green Tree in New York, so much so that important developments will take place in January and possibly even a solution, says Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis yesterday.

This fits in with the UN announcement as well as information from Turkish sources, but is completely at variance with public statements by President Christofias and Akel. The writer finds it a complete mystery why everyone connected with the Cyprus problem believes that something positive may happen while in Cyprus the picture being painted is bleak.

He says this information doesn’t just come from journalists’ sources, but also from top European leaders. A case in point is Disy leader Nicos Anastasiades who came back from a trip to Europe last week saying that both the British Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel all of whom he met with, believe that progress has been achieved in the talks and expect even more progress to come.

Brussels too is of the same opinion. At meetings House President Yiannakis Omirou had with Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, the latter outrightly rejected the view that the talks aren’t progressing due to Turkish intransigence. Barroso, says the paper, is actively involved in the Cyprus problem and is convinced a solution can be reached now. Barroso’s representative, Jorge Cesar das Neves, attended the talks at Green Tree. The fact that EU leaders are firmly convinced that the talks are going well and will go even better in January cannot be a misunderstanding or a delusion.

Confusion, however, reigns supreme from the statements emanating from the Cyprus government. Two things are likely:

1. The talks did in fact go well and there are indeed prospects for a solution, but Christofias is keeping expectations low so that there will not be any preemptive reactions.
2. The two sides see things differently, and the UN and international community don’t share the Cypriot point of view.
The fact remains that the Cyprus government’s credibility is in doubt. No one takes what they are saying at face value. For example, in early 2010 all information indicated that agreement had been reached on the issue of governance, yet Christofias denied it, only today to accuse the Turkish side of reneging on what they had previously agreed.

What is certain is that the time for playing games is over. In January Christofias must either admit there has been progress and agree to an international conference giving rise to reactions internally, or he must lead matters to failure and take responsibility for it, thereby proving the Turks right when they say that the Greek Cypriots have got it good being in the EU and aren’t interested in a solution.

The rhetoric for talks without a timetable or arbitration has become ridiculous and is laughed at in diplomatic circles. Clearly, the talks have already entered their final phase following a very clear timetable and agenda. Last Wednesday Christofias and Eroglu agreed to a all the dates leading to Green Tree 2 which is due to take place around 20 January, as well as on a working programme covering all the chapters. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Lisa Buttenheim, informed the two leaders that the UN will expand its role during the final round of talks. The leaders will be meeting only once a week when they will simply confirm what has been agreed during the previous to-ing and fro-ing and there will also be meetings of UN technocrats with each negotiating team. Naturally there will be some kind of mediation and solutions will be put forward, but without each side knowing the other side’s ultimate position. Not allowing the UN to put forward proposals or to play a mediating role is tantamount to showing bad faith. Besides the whole process cannot be completed without the UN’s active involvement. The UN itself believes that the tools are there, the two sides’ positions understood, and all that is needed is political will. If they don’t reach an agreement now, they will never be able to do so, not in a year’s time, nor even in ten. What the UN is trying to do is to see whether a federal solution is ultimately feasible or not.

The UN S-G will outline his intentions in his forthcoming report on the renewal of UNFICYP. He expects that after Green Tree 2 this report will be positive. But if the process fails, he will explain why. Both sides are already urging Ban Ki-moon to point the finger at the other side. Their efforts not to take the blame does have the effect of somewhat pushing the process forward. But if they are doing so under the pressure of not wanting to take responsibility whereas in actual fact don’t really believe in the solution, then the solution will be a shotgun wedding and prospects of it succeeding are dim.

One thing that worries the international community is Turkey’s apparent lack of enthusiasm in a solution compared with before. The Turkish side is convinced that Christofias cannot solve the Cyprus problem. If he didn’t dare go for it when he was stronger internally and had Talat as his interlocutor, how is he going to be able to do so now that he is weak and has Eroglu on the other side? According to Turkish sources, this is why Erdogan changed his tune and hardened his rhetoric on Cyprus, while at the same time keeping tensions high over the natural gas exploration.

Alexander Downer is expected to visit Ankara in the next few days to check out the Turkish government’s intentions and to seek their support for the climax of the talks. Turkey exerted all its influence to get the UN to ensure that January is the endgame and June the date for wrapping up the procedure if the UN S-G proceeds to an international conference.

Turkey has made it clear that if the talks fail it will change policy and turn towards upgrading the TRNC and its economy with development work and will give TRNC citizenship to Turks in order to control local politics better. According to Turkish Cypriot sources, even Eroglu is concerned about the population increase in the north because the Turkish Cypriots will be undermined. That’s why agreement was reached on the citizenship issue in New York whereby those who had already received TRNC citizenship would be covered by international law in a future settlement.