Never so close to a settlement

Greek and Turkish Cypriots have never before been so close to an agreed settlement but the next few months will be critical as the United Nations push for a deal before Cyprus assumes the presidency of the EU in July next year, Makarios Droushiotis says writing in Politis and the Cyprus Mail.

According to informed sources close to the negotiations, both leaders gave assurances to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, during their meeting in New York last week that they were committed to producing the convergences he had asked for by the time they meet him next in January.

Significant differences nevertheless remain between the two sides, but Ban made it absolutely clear to them that his good offices mission will be terminated in the next few months if the sides do not break the deadlock.

The timeframe for a solution is June 2012. Until then there must be an agreement; the two sides must hold referenda and a federal Cyprus will assume the presidency of the Council of the EU.
If the deadlock is not broken by February, the UN will shut its good offices mission in Cyprus, the source said.

The option of freezing the talks until 2013 is unrealistic and it is something both leaders have fully understood. In fact, Christofias told Ban that he would not be a presidential candidate for a second term and has no plans to continue the talks in 2013. Once the UN team had made sure that the two sides had clearly understood the time constraint, Downer and Pascoe asked both sides if they believed they could bridge their differences. Both Christofias and Eroglu said they could.

The fact that they understood the time factor is perhaps the biggest achievement of the talks at Greentree. Talks without a timeframe and arbitration no longer constitute valid rhetoric. A very clear roadmap and a new procedure have emerged culminating in the endgame. If there is political will and courage, an agreement is possible.

Talks in Nicosia will start again on Thursday with one weekly meeting between the two leaders.
The leaders’ aides and working groups will take it from there while UN representatives together with their experts will be shuttling between the two sides, enriching discussions with their ideas and suggestions.

The UN has assured that they are not interested in imposing any solution, seeking especially to dispel the fears of the Greek Cypriots who vehemently oppose arbitration. As Downer said after briefing the Security Council, “we cannot want a solution more than the Cypriots themselves”, stressing that the role of the UN is to help the two sides reach a solution not to impose it. “They must be happy with the solution they will have reached”.

According to the new roadmap, the final round of talks in Cyprus will cover all chapters that are still open - governance, territory, property and citizenship.

A new tripartite meeting will be held in New York around January 15. Ban expects that the new meeting would be part of the final phase and not its beginning in the sense that when the leaders go to New York they would have already agreed on the four remaining chapters. If they go to the new meeting empty handed they would just be confirming the deadlock in the talks.

Sources said there is neither time nor inclination for another tripartite meeting. In New York there would only be two possibilities - declaring a deadlock or an agreement on the internal aspects and scheduling a multilateral meeting. If all goes as planned, the multilateral meeting will again be held in New York at the end of February or early March. If the talks reach the point of a multilateral meeting their success is a given, but if they collapse, it will happen in February. However, while a settlement is feasible on paper, it would have no value if it is not approved by both communities.

The UN believes that Christofias can count on the strong backing of the EU in case of a settlement, while Russia has given assurances that it will back a deal that is acceptable by both communities. Turkey is still willing, but less enthusiastic than before. Ban has already asked for support from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan while his envoy in Cyprus, Alexander Downer is planning a trip to Ankara. The United States will not get involved in the talks but have pledged to provide help backstage. The UN Secretary-general has the backing of the Security Council. Its President, José Filipe Moraes Cabral, said that both Ban’s and Downer’s efforts have the Council’s strong support. He added: “The Council agreed that the sides should make additional efforts and display the necessary political will to move forward and conclude the negotiations in a positive way.”

Ankara believes all options are open as far as the Cyprus problem is concerned and is preparing for all eventualities, an article in Politis says.

Ankara is satisfied with the New York talks and wants it all cleared up by July 2012 when Cyprus takes on the EU Presidency.

“We are optimistic, we hope that the talks on Cyprus will have a positive outcome” and that they will be able to reach a federal solution by January, a Turkish diplomatic source told the paper, although they are also concerned that the internal political situation in Cyprus might create complications.

If the problem is solved, Ankara predicts it will be followed by positive developments. First the road for Turkey’s entry into the EU will open, although it acknowledges that obstacles still remain and that Cyprus is just the excuse for keeping Turkey out. Secondly a solution will smooth out relations with Greece, and thirdly it will put an end to the crisis in the East Mediterranean over exploration for natural gas, as Turkey will stop its exploration efforts in Cyprus’ EEZ and will recognise the rights of a united Cyprus to exploit its natural resources.

However, if there is no solution, Ankara will harden its stance. It already has a plan B namely to turn the occupied part of the island into a kind of Taiwan, as it realises it doesn’t have much chance of getting the north recognised. Above all it will continue its exploration for natural gas and plans to drill in the same area as Noble Energy.

Another ‘thriller’ unfolded in New York last Monday, says the Cyprus Mail’s satirical column Coffeeshop, at least in the eyes of cliché-peddling newspaper headline writers, who are under the illusion they can sex-up a typically dull Cyprob story on their front page by labelling it a ‘thriller’. Let’s face it Cyprob talks are as exciting and suspenseful as a visit to the supermarket.

We seem to witness exactly the same thriller every time the two hillbilly leaders go to Big Apple for three-way handshakes and smiles with the normally poker-faced Ban Ki-moon.

In the run-up to the thriller, all the opposition parties predicted that there would be traps for the comrade – laid by Big Bad Al and his evil Yank backer, Lyn Pascoe, the pro-Turkish Under-Secretary-General, affectionately referred to as ‘an employee of the UN’ - who would be forced to participate in give-and-take, discuss UN bridging proposals, accept arbitration, an international conference and asphyxiating time-frames.

The comrade and his entourage meanwhile insist that nothing of the sort would happen, implying that the meeting would lead nowhere, in short, just another thriller without the thrills. This is the intergalactic scale of the lunacy that the Cyprob inspires. The government considers it a mega political success, a reason to gloat, when a meeting with Ban produces no results.

And the opposition parties, which had been ringing alarm bells about the danger of progress being made, forget about the traps and complain that Ban issued a statement that did not condemn the Turkish side’s intransigence. If, God forbid, Ban reported progress, they start to moan that he is covering up the intransigence and the comrade was to blame, for not taking a tougher stance.

Last week they were outraged about the change of the format of the talks when the UN decided to have proximity talks instead of direct talks with Ban. All our parties protested, fearing that the change of format could produce results, the last thing they wanted. DIKO warned that “there was a possibility proximity talks would lead to indirect arbitration and the procedure would be laden with other dangers” like the danger of progress. All the parties suffered the same proximity talk panic-attacks.

The presidential mouthpiece Haravghi, meanwhile kept reassuring us that nothing would happen in New York, and all the doom and gloom merchants had been proved wrong. ‘Alarmism rejected’ read Tuesday banner headline, the paper quoting Stef-Stef as saying there were no traps, surprises or covert arbitration.

And on Wednesday the paper carried the triumphant headline - ‘There was no big step’ – thus silencing the alarmists. The comrade had once again been victorious, avoiding all Pascoe’s traps and heroically ensuring against anything positive being achieved in New York.

But the Greentree meeting was not the disappointment we were all praying for, according to our establishment’s information. We hate to be the bringer of bad tidings, but apparently Tof and Ero promised to return to the Big Apple in January with convergences on all issues, so that a date for the multi-party conference that would settle security and guarantees, would be set. If they failed to do so, which is entirely possible, Ban told them he would end the talks and close his good offices mission in Kyproulla. When this happens the church bells will be ringing, there will dancing in the streets and the comrade will return to a hero’s welcome, having once again proved the alarmists wrong.