Time for decisions, not more talks

The lack of political will is the final obstacle to an agreed solution on the Cyprus problem, says Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis last Sunday. Acquiring it does not depend on any external factor. The two sides themselves must find the political courage, not just to solve the problem but to make sure it works. This seems to be how the UN sees the future of the talks, he adds.

According to a source involved in the talks, on the level of technocrats the talks are proceeding very well, but as soon as the issues reach the leaders they get blocked as a result of cowardice and lack of political will to break the deadlock.

The attempt of the Greek Cypriot side to play for time and if possible get the talks put on ice has not succeeded. The UN insist that the Green Tree talks were successful, but the commitment that Christofias and Eroglu undertook that in two months they will be able to bridge their differences on the main issues has not materialised in practice.

However, the UN are not watching with arms crossed. Alexander Downer is working on various scenarios in order not to leave a single stone unturned and to make sure that he has exhausted all possibilities for reaching an agreed solution or at least to be able to substantiate that federation is impossible. The UN have no intention of imposing a solution so that if the process fails it will not be the UN that failed but the two sides.

As Downer said in a recent interview on CyBC, what will be decided in the immediate future is whether or not federation is a possible solution or not.

“If there is deadlock then that will be the end of the search for a solution on the basis of a bicommunal, bizonal federation”, he said.

Tuekey sees June 2012 as the deadline for a solution (including a referendum) due to Cyprus taking over the EU Presidency. The UN see things even more simply. If after three years of talks and almost 50 years since the collapse of the Zurich agreement and 40 years since the invasion, the issues have been discussed ad nauseam. It is no longer a question of talks but decisions.

As a Western diplomat remarked, it is interesting that every time the UN tries to push things forwards reactions are hysterical, whereas when the news is bad, this is accepted with relief. After the joint statement issued after Greentree which spoke of progress, panic ensued in Cyprus, but when Christofias gave assurances that “nothing’s happening”, everyone calmed down.

Irrespective of Eroglu’s stance, or whether Turkey is genuine or not, what has become blatantly obvious is that Christofias is afraid to take a step forward and is simply playing for tie. But time is running out and the margins for an agreed solution are tightening. While his interlocutors agree that Christofias doesn’t have a problem with federation per se, his political cowardice prevents him from taking further steps. In diplomacy intentions don’t count, actions do. Eight years since the 2004 referendum the UN have reached the same conclusion as the UN S-G Kofi Anan who said that the plan that the Greek Cypriots had rejected was not just some plan, it was federation itself. Tassos didn’t want it, Christofias does, but hasn’t got the guts. The result is the same.

Federation will be considered unfeasible for Cyprus and the next talks which will be held will be over straightening out the borders and outlining codes of cooperation between the two states.