If not solution then interim agreement and international conference by July

Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis today says that while politicians’ attention in Cyprus has been on the economy, talks on the Cyprus problem have been forging ahead, with the UN determined not to let the last five years of negotiations go to waste.

However, reaching an agreement before Cyprus undertakes the EU Presidency now seems unattainable and diplomatic efforts are now focused on at least getting an outline of a solution by then.

The writer says that according to his sources, the UN Special Representative in Cyprus, Alexander Downer, has asked the two sides to prepare a 20-page document outlining their positions on all the aspects of the Cyprus problem which will take the form of an outline of an overall solution. In short he has asked them to present their own solution.

The two sides responded positively and last Thursday handed the documents over to the UN. The entire UN team of experts is currently in Cyprus and is working on the documents and the to and fro diplomacy will continue despite the Christmas holidays.

“With the submission of these documents the talks have entered a new phase and will continue intensively up until Greentree 2”, the source said.

The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has already thrown some light on how he intends to proceed over the next few weeks at his end of year press conference in New York. He plans to present personally throughout the two days of talks at Greentree, that he intends to maximise progress up until the Cyprus Presidency, and he hoped to be able to move on to an international conference.

A more specific move from the UN S-G is expected in the next few days making is intentions even clearer in view of the tripartite meeting in January with the aim of producing a joint document that may open the way for a conference.

The UN’s aim is to capitalise on all that has been achieved over the four years of talks by incorporating it all in a 20-page document covering all aspects of the Cyprus problem and signed by both leaders.

This document will remain as a legacy to the next President who will be elected immediately after the Cyprus EU Presidency. The details of an overall solution could in the meantime be fleshed out during this current presidency.

As is known, President Christofias has publicly announced that he will not be running again, except if the Cyprus problem is near a solution. At a recent lunch he had with the ambassadors of EU member states, without referring to the possibility of there being an interim solution, he told them that the Cyprus problem cannot be solved now but that they would have to be continued by the next president. “I will not be a candidate, even though the party and others are pressuring me”, he said.

Diplomats who are closely following the Cyprus problem interpret this to mean that Christofias is already preparing the ground to stand again using as a slogan to be allowed to finish the talks. A politician who says he is being pressured to stand for election must be considered to be standing already.

After half a century of experience of the Cyprus problem, and especially after the last ten years, the international community is wise to the rules of the game that Cyprus’ politicians are playing – no president leaves power of his own accord, thereby admitting defeat. This particular president was elected with the mandate to solve the Cyprus problem. Continuing the talks is essential to his political survival.

The international community is willing to help him, but not, thanks to the experiences of the recent past, on empty promises alone, but with clear commitments. The talks can indeed be shelved for 9 months, but only if there is a clear intermediate commitment on the framework for a solution with the signature of both leaders.

As regards the international conference, the writer says that the UN seems determined to call the two sides to such a conference immediately after Greentree 2, in view of the fact that the Turkish side seems unable to discuss the territorial issue without the presence of Turkey, while Christofias refuses to discuss the property issue without the territorial issue being discussed in tandem.

He says the resolution renewing the UNFICYP resolution is not quite as the government spokesman interpreted it, namely that it would require the agreement of both sides to convene a conference. Yes, for a conference to take place both sides would have to agree. There is no way that anyone can force them to go. But this does not preclude the UN Secretary-General from inviting them to a conference. It would be up to them to accept or not. This is likely what will happen at Greentree 2, and given the Turkish position in favour of a conference, the dilemma will be Christofias’, who will have to decide whether to lead the talks to complete collapse, or to accept and find himself before the same dilemmas at a later stage.