Cyprus could slide towards partition

An article in the Financial Times says that Cyprus might slide towards formal partition if a make-or-break meeting of Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders at the UN this month fails to find a solution, diplomats fear.

Officials in the UN and leading western governments have warned that there is a limit to how long they will back the negotiations, saying they are running out of patience with the inability of both sides to strike a deal.

“If we don’t get agreement now . . . then it really is ‘goodnight, nurse’ ”, a leading diplomat involved in negotiations told the Financial Times.

“There’s a chance the UN will withdraw its good offices in hosting the talks. We’re not going to stay here for ever, going through mindless meetings and meaningless talks.”

Another senior diplomat from a European Union nation warned that the peace talks ran the risk of failing completely. “This meeting is the last chance for a solution because progress so far has been pitiful,” the diplomat said. “We’re approaching the point where it’s time to face up to the painful consequences of failure.” The Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders have held almost 90 face-to-face negotiating sessions in the drive for a settlement.

The paper says discussions have stalled because the Greek Cypriots are demanding extra territory on the island before they agree to abandon their historic rights to property that is on the Turkish side.

The pace of talks has also slowed since Dervis Eroglu was elected Turkish Cypriot president last April, replacing Mehmet Ali Talat.

Critics of Demetris Christofias said the Greek Cypriots were using filibustering tactics. “The Greek Cypriot leadership pulls back when advisers are close to agreeing,” said one person with knowledge of the talks.

The senior EU diplomat said failure to strike a deal this year would bring a real risk that Cyprus would move to formal partition. While the Greek part of the island is an internationally recognised state and member of the EU, the TRNC is formally recognised only by Turkey. “If there is no significant progress by the end of 2010, it will have disastrous consequences and Cyprus could be permanently divided in 2011,” the diplomat said.

“Withdrawal of the UN good offices after a failed peace process means that a non-negotiated partition becomes a real possibility and Turkey would likely push for wider recognition of the TRNC.”

According to the diplomat, the TRNC’s prospects of being recognised as an independent state have increased after an International Court of Justice ruling that Kosovo’s declaration of independence did not violate international law. “Partition will damage Cyprus economically, politically and culturally,” the diplomat told the FT.

“It will also threaten broader regional instability because it will mean Turkey and Greece have to spend more militarily on preserving the formal border across the island.”

Diplomats said the Greek Cypriots wanted all their property in the north of the island – comprising 75 per cent of total property in the TRNC – reinstated. The Turkish Cypriots want to keep the property and pay the Greek Cypriots compensation instead. “Both sides have started to come together on some aspects of the negotiation but haven’t reached sufficient convergence,” a UN official said.

Mr Eroglu wants to reach agreement on property before moving on to other areas. The sensitivity of the issue was confirmed last week when Turkish and Turkish Cypriot politicians met to discuss how to finance any compensation for Greek Cypriot owners.

Leaked reports of the session, attended by a Turkish bank chief executive, sparked a furore. “If things carry on as they are then it’s just negotiations for the sake of negotiations,” said a Turkish Cypriot official, adding that the New York meeting could produce simply an “X-ray photo” of the stalemate or a “prescription to break the deadlock”.

It is time for the UK government to “consider the formal partition of Cyprus” if the current round of UN-backed reunification talks fail, former British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw wrote in The Times yesterday.

His statements came ahead of next week’s meeting between President Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in New York, and a visit by the Turkish President Abdullah Gul to the UK yesterday to collect this year’s Chatham House Prize from the Queen.

Speaking of the New York meeting, which comes after more than two years of negotiations, Straw said, “We should pray for success,” but added that “the chances of a settlement would be greatly enhanced if the international community broke a taboo, and started publicly to recognise that if political equality cannot be achieved within one state, then it could with two states - north and south”.

Straw’s comments, he said, stem not from a belief that Cyprus would be better off divided, but from his frustration at the EU’s, and in particular Cyprus and France’s, opposition to Turkey’s long-awaited accession to the bloc.

While France and Cyprus share the burden of blocking Turkey’s accession hopes, Straw says France has been able to use the “convenient excuse of Cyprus” to hide the “naked truth” that it opposed Turkish accession because it is a predominantly Muslim country. The UK, on the other hand, has always supported Turkish accession to the EU.

Straw urged the international community to see both sides of the story surrounding the Cyprus dispute.

“There are two stories: one of the ‘unjustifiable’ Turkish invasion; the other of such ‘violent oppression’ by the Greek majority of the minority that Turkish protection was (and is) vital. Both sets of stories have truths, but because Greek Cyprus was admitted to the EU before any settlement of the island’s future it is their truths which dominate EU decisions on Turkey,” he wrote.

Speaking to the BBC’s Radio Four Today Programme yesterday morning Straw said that if next week’s talks failed, a “default position” was needed to prevent Turkey’s accession process from being totally scuppered.

“Greek Cypriot Cyprus is using what is a relatively tiny dispute to try to stop Turkey coming into the EU,” and warned: “If we carry on locking Turkey’s accession negotiations we will push Turkey towards Iran and the [Arab] south.”
Alternatively, Straw said, Europe should “embrace the advance” of a Turkey that was “becoming an advanced industrialised country”.

“If we reject it, we will pay the price.”

Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu has told UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon that a solution can be found by the end of the year if the Greek Cypriots stop wasting time.

According to Turkish Cypriot press reports, in a letter dated November 1, Eroglu states that progress and agreement can be reached by the end of the year “if the Greek Cypriot side takes progressive steps and shows the necessary political will”.

He was quoted saying: “If the Greek Cypriot side stops making unnecessary statements and starts putting its energy into the negotiations on the Cyprus problem, then a comprehensive solution may be found by the end of the year.”

The Turkish side continues to engage in negotiations with good will and has accepted peace plans, said Eroglu, adding that the upcoming tripartite meeting between Ban and the two leaders on November 18 would have a positive impact on the talks.

The United Nations yesterday highlighted the importance of a New York meeting on the Cyprus problem next week as President Christofias said his aim was to break potential deadlocks and pave the way for a comprehensive solution, the Cyprus Mail reports.

“It’s an important meeting in the process, it’s not just a run-of-the-mill meeting; it’s going to be particularly important,” UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer said yesterday, following a meeting between Christofias and Eroglu.

Downer said the UN has already started working on their report that will be completed after the leaders’ meeting.

“We’ll obviously update it to take into consideration what’s happened in that meeting; in other words, to put it in a simpler way, it won’t be completed until the meeting has taken place,” Downer said.

The Australian diplomat also sought to clear the air concerning the UN role in the negotiations.

“There is a sort of presumption that the United Nations is anxious to force something upon people; it’s not our objective to force something upon people. It is the objective of the leaders in Cyprus to achieve a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political equality and single sovereignty as articulated in Security Council resolutions,” Downer said.

He stressed that nothing could be forced on the people of Cyprus as ultimately they would have to endorse any agreement.

“Suggestions that we can come here and force something on them, and that the people will be forced to vote yes in referendums is fanciful; that is not possible,” he said.

Asked about the New York meeting, Christofias said he aimed to defend the principles and, as far as possible, break potential deadlocks and open the way for a comprehensive solution.

“This is the aim. I do not aim to go to New York to determine a deadlock and then full stop, nothing further. We want the talks to continue in a creative way and this will become evident in due course,” Christofias said.

After the meeting, Eroglu said the main subject at the New York meeting would be the slow progress on the property issue.

The Turkish Cypriot leader declined to comment on reports that if there are no convergences in New York then division in Cyprus would become permanent.