Talks stumble

The Cyprus Mail says that President Nicos Anastasiades has been “backed into a corner” over his three demands for a joint statement prior to the resumption of talks, ‘bold steps’ from Turkey and greater EU involvement.

It says still no date has been set for a meeting of the two leaders, while the two sides continue to argue over the joint statement, each calling the other intransigent while claiming the fault lies elsewhere.

Not only has a date not been set yet, the two sides have not even agreed on when the respective negotiators will fly to Ankara and Athens.

According to international relations expert Hubert Faustmann, the Greek Cypriot demand for a joint statement before the resumption of talks has backed them into a corner, while the Turkish Cypriots put themselves in the wrong by departing from the agreed basis of the talks. A “face-saving strategy” is now needed for both to get out.

The Greek Cypriot argument that they need to ensure their interlocutors mean business before they start on a new process, which they cannot afford to let fail, is a fair point.

But Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu’s readiness to start talks immediately without any preconditions has put the ball back in their court.

As one source close to the talks put it, making Eroglu look flexible is no easy feat.

And somewhat predictably, the UN will be more concerned with locking in what has already been achieved, to avoid backtracking, and work to close the gap on the remainder by actually getting the talks started.

“The talks are always both a blame game and resolution attempt. In the blame game, the Greek Cypriots will look like the party that won’t start the talks because that is an easier sell than the Greek Cypriots’ concerns,” said Faustmann.

While some analysts do not rule out an agreement on Varosha coming near the endgame, just before referendums are held, the general view is that the chances of opening the ghost town prior to that, and without a simultaneous agreement on Tympou (Ercan) airport are slim to nil.

Anastasiades’ trip to Brussels on Friday resulted in apparent expressions of support for greater EU involvement in the talks by the leaders of France and Germany. The presidents of the European Council and Commission were also reportedly warming to the idea, according to the state broadcaster, but wanted to examine the possibility after the talks started.

According to a Turkish Cypriot source close to the talks, efforts to upgrade the EU’s presence at the negotiating table will not succeed at the current stage.

“I think the EU is not divided on this issue. They say they are ready to give more support if both sides ask them, but they are not ready to do it against the will of one side. Nothing can happen without the two sides agreeing. Are they going to put a gun to Mr Eroglu’s head?”

As regards the joint statement, the two negotiators, Andreas Mavroyiannis and Osman Ertug, have made progress on this, but appear to have hit a snag on the words ‘single sovereignty’ and ‘single citizenship’.

The Turkish Cypriots will only incorporate these Greek Cypriot demands if the words ‘residual powers’ and ‘internal citizenship’ are also thrown into the equation.

The dispute appears to be fundamental as it tackles the question of what kind of a federation a reunified Cyprus will actually be.

“Yes, we’re demanding to have something substantial if the two leaders are to meet,” said a Greek Cypriot source close to the talks.

“(The Turkish Cypriots) feel very comfortable by saying let’s start, but if we’re going to start, we want to make sure the talks will be result-orientated.

The source said the Turkish side was trying to destroy any possibility of a settlement through the constant erosion of the basis of the talks as set out in UN resolutions.

“We are not asking for a single word more than what is in the UN Security Council resolutions.”

He argued that the past joint statements of Christofias-Talat are not clear enough on what the end goal should be.

“They say single sovereignty, international personality and citizenship are agreed in principle but that these need to be discussed in the negotiations. So where is the clarity?”

The Greek Cypriots say they are “determined” to move forward and tackle the fundamental issues so that when the two leaders meet, it will be a landmark both in terms of substance and process.

“We are embarking on an exercise to do things differently and, at last, be result-orientated, because we care about a settlement and want to make sure we get it right.”

On the process, the Greek Cypriot negotiating team wants to take a “holistic” approach to the talks, recognising that all chapters are interlinked and interdependent.

Until now, the Greek Cypriot source argued, the convergences reached in the last five years contain nothing on territory, security, guarantees, and very little on property.

“Even on issues like power-sharing and governance, a lot of work has been done but this work stands in the air, because we don’t yet have a basic understanding and agreement on the core issues and on the basis for governance.”

By including ‘residual powers’ of the constituent states that will make up a federation in the draft text of the joint statement, the Turkish Cypriots are challenging the notion of single sovereignty and eroding achievements of the past, said the source.

“There is not a single core issue on which there is agreement,” he said.

“Nobody likes a lack of progress, but we prefer to face the difficulties now and get it right rather than start something that will collapse soon after,” he added.

For his part, the Turkish Cypriot source said the reason they were not keen on a joint statement in the first place was because they were afraid that some core issues will make the sides engage in continuous negotiation, “which is what has happened”.

The Turkish Cypriots are happy to start with a more general statement to get the ball rolling with reference to a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political equality where all relevant UN resolutions will be respected, all past convergences upheld and EU principles applied.

Eroglu has already given a written statement to the UN Secretary-General saying that he agrees to all past convergences and high level agreements.

“We say let’s focus on the remaining issues, property, territory, security and guarantees. We want to start talking about them from tomorrow.

“But Mr Anastasiades wants to use specific references of an evolving transformation of the Cyprus Republic with single sovereignty and citizenship,” he said.

“Can you imagine Eroglu agreeing to a position that is more flexible than that of Talat?”

He argued that a federal government should not interfere with the powers of a constituent state. “This is what federations are all about,” hence the demand for ‘residual powers’ in the text, otherwise you’re talking about a unitary state.”

The Turkish Cypriot source added that when the UN prepared a draft text as ‘food for thought’ for the two sides, the UN respected this balance, but Anastasiades immediately attacked the UN for injecting confederalist elements into the statement.

“This is creating lots of question marks for the Turkish side because if you describe residual powers and internal citizenship as confederal now, how are you going to agree to that in months ahead. You are demonising these concepts.”

On the UN draft text, the Greek Cypriot source countered that the idea is to make suggestions that may or may not be useful to either side.

“The Turkish Cypriots have transformed food for thought into a document. We are not going to play this game, and the UN doesn’t want this either.”

Faustmann argues that ultimately the negotiations will have to resume, and he believes the power struggle within DISY’s coalition partner DIKO could be key to achieving progress.

DIKO’s leader Marios Garoyian faces a leadership challenge from party deputy Nicolas Papadopoulos in early December. If Papadopoulos wins, it is considered likely DIKO will withdraw from government, leaving Anastasiades and DISY nearly isolated at the presidential palace and in parliament, where a raft of troika-related measures still need to be passed.

“One reading of why the Greek Cypriots are playing hard at the moment is to back a hard line position on the Cyprus problem. This would make Garoyian’s life a little bit easier and could help get him re-elected,” said Faustmann.

According to the academic, “the most promising new element in the negotiations” is the agreement for Mavroyiannis to visit Ankara for talks.

“The direct channel between Turkey and the Greek Cypriots is very important, much less than the Turkish Cypriots going to Athens because Greece is not part of the problem,” said Faustmann.

A Greek Cypriot going to Ankara “allows a lot of misperceptions and prejudices about each other, nourished by the fact they are not talking to each other, to be tackled. It allows them to build trust, an essential part of an agreement which has been missing.”

It remains to be seen whether the coming days, weeks and months will bring real hope of a solution.

“The real question is to what extent there is a serious interest in Ankara to settle,” said Faustmann.

The Greek Cypriot source said this remains to be confirmed, but on all issues, the Turkish approach is no longer an out of hand rejection. “We see a bit more openness, a kind of gathering momentum.”

A similar rare note of cautious optimism was expressed by the Turkish Cypriot source, who said he could see a trend in the talks leading towards a common language that will “break this deadlock”.

“I think it’s a matter of time, but we are losing precious time unnecessarily.”

There is a long-standing joke in Cyprus problem circles that you’ll never lose betting against a solution. But times are tough. The economy’s tanked. There’s gas in the sea waiting to come out. Maybe, just maybe, a few hopefuls will go after the long odds.