A delicate balancing act

An editorial in the Cyprus Mail says that the Cyprus problem is back. Autumn, the period the UN had said a new settlement drive would commence, has arrived and all indications are that the procedure will soon be set in motion. Positive signs were evident during President Anastasiades’ recent visit to the US where it was announced that the negotiators of the two sides would be able to talk to representatives of Turkey’s and Greece’s governments. Being able to talk to representatives of the Turkish government had been a long-standing demand of the Greek Cypriot leadership that always maintained that the key to a solution was in Ankara.

The agreement was reached at a meeting of the foreign ministers of Greece and Turkey and many positive statements followed. Foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu spoke of “a better climate” and said that the exchange of visits would be “a very significant step towards restoring trust”. But Nicosia, according to government sources, was even more impressed with the level of interest shown in Cyprus by the US administration.

This interest did not come out of the blue but is directly linked to the hydrocarbon deposits in the eastern Mediterranean and in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone. The US had given up on Cyprus and a settlement after the rejection of the Annan plan in 2004, but the natural gas in the region has re-kindled its interest, presumably because it views this as an opportunity for new partnerships between countries which would lead to greater stability.

Nobody can say what the overall plan exactly is, but the creation of stable conditions in the region, by encouraging the co-operation of Israel, Turkey, Cyprus, Greece and, probably, Egypt must be part of the US thinking. Stability and co-operation are essential for the full exploitation of the area’s, reportedly, huge hydrocarbon reserves.

In this context, a Cyprus settlement, which would normalise relations between the island and Turkey and presumably lead to co-operation in the field hydrocarbons, has become a necessity. Anastasiades is aware of this and started, rather cautiously, to broach the subject, in his televised news conference, ostensibly about his visit to the US, primarily focusing on the Cyprus problem and his intentions. He treaded very carefully, insisting that talks would start only if there was adequate preparation and underlining the role of the National Council and the need for “collective consultation”.

It was a start, but it was also evident that the president was performing a balancing act, expressing his views very diplomatically in order to keep his hard-line government allies on side. Will he be able to walk the tightrope when talks are in full sway and important decisions have to be taken? His idea of keeping the people directly informed through regular television appearances is very good as it limits the damage the hard-line rejectionists could do through their scare-mongering and misinformation.

They have embarked on their negative crusade, before the procedure has even begun. Anastasiades used his television appearance to respond to the wild claims that direct talks with Ankara would lead to the dreaded four-party conference (bad because the Turkish side had always wanted it) and the alleged downgrading of the Republic. He also repeated the view that a solution “could serve as a catalyst for Cyprus to exit the economic crisis”, a compelling argument that the government should make the most of.

There are no doubts about the president’s commitment to reaching a settlement, but the question is, will he be prepared to go all the way, once he loses the support of the majority of the political parties? Will he try to carry public support without the backing of the parties? We suspect he would have no choice. The discovery of natural gas – like EU membership – could serve as a catalyst for a settlement, but this time the stakes are much higher and there might not be the escape route the Greek Cypriots had in 2004.

Coffeeshop

The Sunday Mail’s satirical column coffeeshop says Pres Nik announced the comeback of the Cyprob soap opera, appropriately, in a televised news conference on Wednesday evening during which he was ultra-careful not to say anything that could have been interpreted as over-eagerness for a settlement. Instead he stuck to his mantra about the need for thorough preparation and assured everyone that talks with Ankara would not lead to a four-party meeting, which all parties are rabidly opposed to. They are against it because, according to the EDEK spokesman, the four-party meeting was a long-standing Turkish demand. It must be bad for us if the Turks support it. 

The highlight of Nik’s performance was his assurances that natural gas would not play a part in the talks. He omitted to mention that if there was no natural gas, there would be no talks.