The
Cyprus Mail says that President Nicos Anastasiades has been “backed into a
corner” over his three demands for a joint statement prior to the resumption of
talks, ‘bold steps’ from Turkey and greater EU involvement.
It says
still no date has been set for a meeting of the two leaders, while the two
sides continue to argue over the joint statement, each calling the other
intransigent while claiming the fault lies elsewhere.
Not only
has a date not been set yet, the two sides have not even agreed on when the
respective negotiators will fly to Ankara and Athens.
According
to international relations expert Hubert Faustmann, the Greek Cypriot demand
for a joint statement before the resumption of talks has backed them into a
corner, while the Turkish Cypriots put themselves in the wrong by departing
from the agreed basis of the talks. A “face-saving strategy” is now needed for
both to get out.
The Greek
Cypriot argument that they need to ensure their interlocutors mean business
before they start on a new process, which they cannot afford to let fail, is a
fair point.
But
Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu’s readiness to start talks immediately
without any preconditions has put the ball back in their court.
As one
source close to the talks put it, making Eroglu look flexible is no easy feat.
And
somewhat predictably, the UN will be more concerned with locking in what has
already been achieved, to avoid backtracking, and work to close the gap on the
remainder by actually getting the talks started.
“The
talks are always both a blame game and resolution attempt. In the blame game,
the Greek Cypriots will look like the party that won’t start the talks because
that is an easier sell than the Greek Cypriots’ concerns,” said Faustmann.
While
some analysts do not rule out an agreement on Varosha coming near the endgame,
just before referendums are held, the general view is that the chances of
opening the ghost town prior to that, and without a simultaneous agreement on
Tympou (Ercan) airport are slim to nil.
Anastasiades’
trip to Brussels on Friday resulted in apparent expressions of support for
greater EU involvement in the talks by the leaders of France and Germany. The
presidents of the European Council and Commission were also reportedly warming
to the idea, according to the state broadcaster, but wanted to examine the
possibility after the talks started.
According
to a Turkish Cypriot source close to the talks, efforts to upgrade the EU’s
presence at the negotiating table will not succeed at the current stage.
“I think
the EU is not divided on this issue. They say they are ready to give more
support if both sides ask them, but they are not ready to do it against the
will of one side. Nothing can happen without the two sides agreeing. Are they
going to put a gun to Mr Eroglu’s head?”
As
regards the joint statement, the two negotiators, Andreas Mavroyiannis and
Osman Ertug, have made progress on this, but appear to have hit a snag on the
words ‘single sovereignty’ and ‘single citizenship’.
The
Turkish Cypriots will only incorporate these Greek Cypriot demands if the words
‘residual powers’ and ‘internal citizenship’ are also thrown into the equation.
The
dispute appears to be fundamental as it tackles the question of what kind of a federation
a reunified Cyprus will actually be.
“Yes,
we’re demanding to have something substantial if the two leaders are to meet,”
said a Greek Cypriot source close to the talks.
“(The
Turkish Cypriots) feel very comfortable by saying let’s start, but if we’re
going to start, we want to make sure the talks will be result-orientated.
The
source said the Turkish side was trying to destroy any possibility of a
settlement through the constant erosion of the basis of the talks as set out in
UN resolutions.
“We are
not asking for a single word more than what is in the UN Security Council
resolutions.”
He argued
that the past joint statements of Christofias-Talat are not clear enough on
what the end goal should be.
“They say
single sovereignty, international personality and citizenship are agreed in
principle but that these need to be discussed in the negotiations. So where is
the clarity?”
The Greek
Cypriots say they are “determined” to move forward and tackle the fundamental
issues so that when the two leaders meet, it will be a landmark both in terms
of substance and process.
“We are
embarking on an exercise to do things differently and, at last, be
result-orientated, because we care about a settlement and want to make sure we
get it right.”
On the
process, the Greek Cypriot negotiating team wants to take a “holistic” approach
to the talks, recognising that all chapters are interlinked and interdependent.
Until
now, the Greek Cypriot source argued, the convergences reached in the last five
years contain nothing on territory, security, guarantees, and very little on
property.
“Even on
issues like power-sharing and governance, a lot of work has been done but this
work stands in the air, because we don’t yet have a basic understanding and
agreement on the core issues and on the basis for governance.”
By
including ‘residual powers’ of the constituent states that will make up a
federation in the draft text of the joint statement, the Turkish Cypriots are
challenging the notion of single sovereignty and eroding achievements of the
past, said the source.
“There is
not a single core issue on which there is agreement,” he said.
“Nobody
likes a lack of progress, but we prefer to face the difficulties now and get it
right rather than start something that will collapse soon after,” he added.
For his
part, the Turkish Cypriot source said the reason they were not keen on a joint
statement in the first place was because they were afraid that some core issues
will make the sides engage in continuous negotiation, “which is what has happened”.
The
Turkish Cypriots are happy to start with a more general statement to get the
ball rolling with reference to a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political
equality where all relevant UN resolutions will be respected, all past
convergences upheld and EU principles applied.
Eroglu
has already given a written statement to the UN Secretary-General saying that
he agrees to all past convergences and high level agreements.
“We say
let’s focus on the remaining issues, property, territory, security and
guarantees. We want to start talking about them from tomorrow.
“But Mr
Anastasiades wants to use specific references of an evolving transformation of
the Cyprus Republic with single sovereignty and citizenship,” he said.
“Can you
imagine Eroglu agreeing to a position that is more flexible than that of
Talat?”
He argued
that a federal government should not interfere with the powers of a constituent
state. “This is what federations are all about,” hence the demand for ‘residual
powers’ in the text, otherwise you’re talking about a unitary state.”
The
Turkish Cypriot source added that when the UN prepared a draft text as ‘food
for thought’ for the two sides, the UN respected this balance, but Anastasiades
immediately attacked the UN for injecting confederalist elements into the
statement.
“This is
creating lots of question marks for the Turkish side because if you describe
residual powers and internal citizenship as confederal now, how are you going
to agree to that in months ahead. You are demonising these concepts.”
On the UN
draft text, the Greek Cypriot source countered that the idea is to make
suggestions that may or may not be useful to either side.
“The
Turkish Cypriots have transformed food for thought into a document. We are not
going to play this game, and the UN doesn’t want this either.”
Faustmann
argues that ultimately the negotiations will have to resume, and he believes
the power struggle within DISY’s coalition partner DIKO could be key to
achieving progress.
DIKO’s
leader Marios Garoyian faces a leadership challenge from party deputy Nicolas
Papadopoulos in early December. If Papadopoulos wins, it is considered likely
DIKO will withdraw from government, leaving Anastasiades and DISY nearly
isolated at the presidential palace and in parliament, where a raft of
troika-related measures still need to be passed.
“One
reading of why the Greek Cypriots are playing hard at the moment is to back a
hard line position on the Cyprus problem. This would make Garoyian’s life a
little bit easier and could help get him re-elected,” said Faustmann.
According
to the academic, “the most promising new element in the negotiations” is the
agreement for Mavroyiannis to visit Ankara for talks.
“The
direct channel between Turkey and the Greek Cypriots is very important, much
less than the Turkish Cypriots going to Athens because Greece is not part of
the problem,” said Faustmann.
A Greek
Cypriot going to Ankara “allows a lot of misperceptions and prejudices about
each other, nourished by the fact they are not talking to each other, to be
tackled. It allows them to build trust, an essential part of an agreement which
has been missing.”
It
remains to be seen whether the coming days, weeks and months will bring real
hope of a solution.
“The real
question is to what extent there is a serious interest in Ankara to settle,”
said Faustmann.
The Greek
Cypriot source said this remains to be confirmed, but on all issues, the
Turkish approach is no longer an out of hand rejection. “We see a bit more
openness, a kind of gathering momentum.”
A similar
rare note of cautious optimism was expressed by the Turkish Cypriot source, who
said he could see a trend in the talks leading towards a common language that
will “break this deadlock”.
“I think
it’s a matter of time, but we are losing precious time unnecessarily.”
There is
a long-standing joke in Cyprus problem circles that you’ll never lose betting
against a solution. But times are tough. The economy’s tanked. There’s gas in
the sea waiting to come out. Maybe, just maybe, a few hopefuls will go after
the long odds.