UN to submit proposals as last chance for Cyprus

The UN Secretary-General doesn’t want to hear about the Cyprus problem any more, writes Makarios Droushiotis in Politis.

Going through what all his predecessors did, from U Thant to Kofi Anan, Ban Ki-moon seems to have given up with Cyprus and is looking for a way out of the procedure before he gets even more exposed.

There is only five more weeks of life in the talks, namely until the end of March when Alexander Downer submits his final review to the UN S-G. If the report is positive then a multilateral conference will be convened, but if it is negative the talks will end there and then and he will give up his mission to the Security Council.

Last Thursday Downer had a meeting with the leadership of the Republican Turkish party (CTP). The following day two articles appeared in Yeni Duzen citing high ranking CTP officials as their source. These reports claimed that the UN S-G is so frustrated with the Cyprus problem that he supposedly said he never wants to set foot on the island. He gave so much of his precious time to Cyprus at a time when there are so many more serious problems that required his attention and the response he received was so disheartening and even demeaning to his person. As Kurt Waldheim wrote in his memoirs as regards the Cyprus problem, you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.

The UN sets much of the blame on Dervis Eroglu because with his insistence on the issue of cross voting, he broke the momentum of the talks. However, they don’t consider Christofias to be chomping at the bit for a solution either. Christofias himself admitted the other day that the Greek Cypriot side was not convincing that it wanted a solution. What’s more they don’t forgive him, despite having been warned, for not having taken advantage of Talat being leader of the Turkish Cypriots, and instead dragging his feet. The UN S-G even went as far as paying a visit to Cyprus in order to push the process forward but Christofias dug in and let the visit fail.

After all that transpired before and after Greentree, the UN S-G has now decided to disentangle himself from the process, while giving it one last chance. According to Yeni Duzen, the UN will submit a package of proposals on the chapter of governance and property.

According to Droushiotis’ sources, the UN will simply try to help the two sides reach common positions, as they don’t consider the differences to be insurmountable. Nevertheless they believe that the chances of success are limited.

If there is progress in these two chapters, then the chapter on citizenship will open up, which is not as tough as it seemed at the start. The Greek Cypriot side reported that its total population is 630,000, while the Turkish Cypriot side reported 210,000, a 75-25 ratio, which is within the frameworks being discussed in view of the demographic changes that have occurred since 1974.

If all goes well, then a multilateral conference will be convened, preceded by a discussion on the territorial issue. A map similar to that in the Anan plan is expected to emerge.

The UN believes that in practice an agreement is feasible, but politically the game has probably been lost.

In the more likely scenario that the talks will collapse, Ban K-moon will submit his final report to the UN Security Council and his colleagues are indicating he will point the finger at who is to blame. As to what will follow, many scenaria are being put forward, but the choices are few.
- talks will continue just to keep the hope alive, an unlikely possibility
- talks will be postponed till after the election in 2013. In this case they would not continue where they left off. A renewed effort would probably aim at something much simpler and looser.
- The UN will shut shop in Cyprus and leave the Cypriots to discuss the “Cyprus-owned talks without asphyxiating deadlines and arbitration” for as long as they want
The final say will belong to the UN Security Council. The SC cannot ignore the recommendations of the S-G, nor can there be unanimity without satisfying both sides in Cyprus. A single negative vote would be enough for UNFICYP’s mandate not to be renewed, although it would be more likely that it would be further reduced and gradually withdrawn rather than a sudden withdrawal.

Things will become clearer this coming week when the UN S-G submits his interim report to the Security Council. It is expected that the report will be severe and will warn both sides as to the danger of the talks collapsing.

Nothing will be the same in Cyprus if the talks collapse, says Makarios Droushiotis in another article in Politis. The hope for a solution will completely disappear, especially in the hearts of the people living on the island.

Everything will depend on the UN S-G’s report. If he blames both sides equally and concludes that a bizonal bicommunal federation is unfeasible, recognition of the TRNC will be more difficult. Perhaps the situation will remain as it is until the climate allows for a looser federation.

It seems the Turks aren’t focusing on recognition at the moment. Turkey is more intent on controlling things by Turkifying the TRNC, either by appointing Turks in key positions or by expanding the islamic influence in a society which in essence is not very religious.

Moreover, Turkey is trying to weaken the unions and control the economy of this state, which is not economically viable, doesn’t produce anything, leeches on Turkey’s economy and is despised in Turkey itself. On the other hand, the Turkish Cypriots claim that Turkey never gave them the chance to be economically independent, and nor do they have the same opportunities in Turkey that Turks have in the north.

Turkey is trying to control the basic economic structure of the TRNC through large infrastructure projects eg, water transport, electricity supply, energy, tourism and by nationalising basic services.

This Turkification of the north is adversey affecting the interest of Turkish Cypriots who will soon find themselves facing the dilemma of either completely subjugating themselves to Turkey, emigrating, or moving south and living as a minority in the Republic of Cyprus.

South of the Green Line things are not so tragic in that the Greek Cypriots have at least managed to save their existence as a state. However, the Greek Cypriot presence in the north of the island is coming to an end becoming completely Turkish.

On a personal level it is the refugees who will pay the price and they are already running to the Immoval Property Commission selling their property for peanuts because the political system does not give them much hope for anything more. The situation is touch and go and the outcome of a collapse of the talks too enormous for it to have been handled for eight years now through a policy of “no deadlines or arbitration”. And if it is not turned back (it seems already to be too late), the result of the failure of the Cypriot political system, both to safeguard the integrity of the country and to handle the national tragic events of 1974, will be the complete Turkification of half of Cyprus.