Solution unlikely

Turkey has begun implementing its plan B for Cyprus problem whereby the occupied north of Cyprus will become incorporated into Turkey.

Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis today says that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has made it clear to the UN team working on the Cyprus problem that the end of the year will mark the end of the road for the talks. As the UN understands it, Ankara does not believe there will be a solution and blames the Greek Cypriot side for wasting time until the EU presidency, and making the natural gas drilling its priority instead.

However, the UN also sees an unwillingness for a solution on the Turkish Cypriot side whose priority has become trying to put the blame on the Greek Cypriot side in order to pave the way for upgrading the north. Turkey’s hardening stance has already become evident through his tough talk (Erdogan’s visit to the north in July and current war mongering over the natural gas drilling), something that has been absent since 2002 when the AKP came to power.

The Turkish Prime Minister, “drunk” from a 50% victory at the polls and from his popularity among the Muslims of the Middle East, believes that the EU tricked Turkey and has turned towards the East. The EU entry negotiations had been Turkey’s main motivator in its change of policy towards Cyprus in 2002. The fact that they have been frozen and that Turkey’s EU prospects have diminished due to France and Germany’s reservations, has made Turkey turn to the East and Cyprus will be the first victim.

It seems that perhaps for the first time since this latest round of talks started, the UN have finally realized that a solution to the Cyprus problem on the basis of a single federal state with two ethnic regions is unlikely, if not impossible. Even though the “intense” negotiations are still continuing, no one believes they will get anywhere. While the UN would like a solution to be reached by the end of the year, there is nothing to indicate on the level of society, that this might be possible. On the contrary, relations between the two communities are cold. The UN team’s plan of action continues to be to push the two sides towards an agreed solution. The three-way meeting in New York continues to be a major landmark. By discussing all the chapters in “intense” talks following a prepared agenda, it will give the two sides a last chance to exhaust all aspects and achieve as many convergences as possible.

In New York the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is also expected to state the obvious truth that bilateral negotiations without a deadline and arbitration borders on the ridiculous, that a solution is possible and that all that is needed is the political will. He will ask them to discuss his document with him, otherwise he will give up his good-offices mission and given his verdict for the failure in a report to the Security Council. As none of the sides wants to be blamed for the failure of the talks, the UN believes that they will both agree, thereby paving the way for convening an international conference.

Nevertheless it’s not enough to force the two leaders to accept a document without them wanting a solution that will lead to reconciliation rather than a shotgun wedding. As former UN Secretary-General Kurt Waldheim used to say, “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink”.

It’s true that Dervis Eroglu is not desperate for a solution and Christofias has shown he is afraid of his shadow and all he is doing is managing the Cyprus problem without following a specific policy. What’s more he is at his weakest since becoming president. With his political status in tatters and the majority of public opinion doubting his leadership and negotiating abilities, Christofias is in no position to sign a solution and persuade the people to accept it. He is therefore focusing on the blame game, and “Turkish intransigence” as the ultimate strategy. In reality Christofias’ weakness is giving the Turkish side a big advantage to win the blame game. The war mongering over the natural gas has given him some breathing space and at the very least will let him off the hook for the collapse of the talks internally despite the fact that the price would be that it would bring an end to the talks without any prospects of starting them again.

It seems that Turkey has realised that threats of war are not to its benefit and has changed tack, with the Turkish Vice President saying that “Turkey will act with prudence and will not give the satisfaction to those who want tension and crisis”. He repeated that Turkey’s tactic on the Cyprus problem is “one step forward”. Christofias’ weakness allows Turkey to make many steps forward.