Can a weakened Christofias deliver a solution?

Although the Mari disaster and the economy have overshadowed the Cyprus problem, we are rapidly heading towards the October meeting in New York which will decide the island’s future, says Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis yesterday, because at that meeting the UN S-G will decide whether a bizonal federation is still possible or whether it is no longer realistic.

Quoting well-informed sources he says that at the last meeting between the three, Ban Ki-moon warned the two leaders that if the deadlock is not broken by October then he will go to the Security Council and explain the reasons why his effort has failed and why the model for a solution that has been sought since 1977 is no longer feasible. However, until then he will leave no stone unturned in order to reach a successful outcome.

He has already got the two sides to agree that their next meeting in October will not be a mere three-party meeting but will be like a conference in a secluded spot with no press or other political parties, in the style of Camp David.

Droushiotis says that during their working lunch in Geneva, the UN S-G put several alternatives before the two leaders for moving the process ahead.

First he proposed a meeting lasting several days to be held in Qatar, a country friendly to both sides at which the two leaders and their teams as well as UN experts would take part. Eroglu agreed but Christofias wanted the whole of the Greek Cypriot political leadership to also be present, which Ban Ki-moon rejected as being counter-productive.

Ban Ki-moon then tried to include Turkey and Greece in the process, putting forward an old suggestion for Christofias to meet with Erdogan and Papandreou with Eroglu. Eroglu agreed provided the equality of the two leaders was maintained, but Christofias declined for the same reason.

The S-G then suggested that the procedure be speeded up in Cyprus itself with meetings three times a week. Eroglu agreed but Christofias said that, as President he had too many obligations, proposed meetings twice a week instead.

Having achieved the speeding up of the process with the more active participation of the UN, the S-G then proposed a new three-party meeting to be held towards the end of October in New York. Both leaders agreed.

Having got the two sides to agree, he then returned to his original proposal for a longer meeting lasting over several days to be held somewhere outside New York. Eroglu accepted immediately but Christofias hesitated and asked tentatively: “Are you going to impose a solution on us?” In the end he too agreed and the date was set for 20 October. The UN S-G asked them to keep at least eight days free.

Clearly, Droushiotis says, the UN S-G has lost his patience with the Cyprus problem and feels that time is running out for achieving an agreed solution. He also feels that “Cyprus ownership” of the talks has run its course and cannot be continued without a timetable or arbitration.

The UN is fed up of hearing the arguments of both sides time after time and has prepared bridging proposals which they will put before the two leaders in order to help them reach the framework of an agreement based on the UN parameters that have been set out since 1974. If they do not succeed, the UN S-G will submit his final report to the Security Council leaving each side to shoulder their respective responsibilities.

All this had been planned before the Mari disaster and Christofias’ weakening on the internal front. The international community is concerned as to whether Christofias can negotiate to the end and then convince his community to accept a solution which in the best possible scenario would be very similar to the Anan plan.

Despite underlining that the Cyprus problem is one of his priorities and calling for unity internally, Christofias has done nothing to prepare society for the eventualities to come. His relationship with the opposition is the worst it has ever been and his popularity among the population at the lowest ebb since he was elected.

Turkey, meanwhile, who is fully aware that Christofias is weak, does not seem at all willing to help him in any way and is insisting that the UN S-G continues to follow the road map agreed in Geneva with the end of the year as a deadline.

The UN had hoped that when Erdogan visited the north on 20 July he would have sent some kind of positive message to the Greek Cypriot side, instead of which they were shocked by his hardline statements that Morphou would not be returned and that they should forget Karpasia.

These statements could have been a way out for Christofias without any blame as no leader could sell a solution to the Greek Cypriot community that was worse than the Anan plan as regards territory.

According to Turkish Foreign Ministry sources, Erdogan’s aim was to send a message to Christofias to buckle up, because they felt he was playing for time to take him up to when Cyprus takes on the EU Presidency and then through the preelection period and thereby prolong the talks as long as possible.

According to Turkish paper Zaman, Erdogan’s words were an appeal to the Greek Cypriots to come to their senses. The Turks believed that trying to extend the status quo is a losing game for the Greek Cypriots and that they should instead do as the Turks do and follow a win-win strategy.

Turkey has also toughened its stance as regards the natural gas issue off the Cyprus coast. “Without a solution to the Cyprus problem being found and before a government is established that will represent the whole of the island, no one has the right to manage the island’s natural resources”, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davudoglu said.

What with the Cyprus government’s intention to proceed with drilling in October at the same time as the talks reach their climax and with Turkey warning that it will react, the political scene will be even more charged and the possibility of a solution even more distant, the writer concludes.