Eide returns next week

The Special Adviser of the UN Secretary-General on Cyprus Espen Barth Eide will return briefly to the next week, in order 
to ascertain directly from the leaders their views on the current impasse in the talks and prospects for its resolution, 
the UN office in Nicosia has said.

The Special Adviser also plans to use the trip to prepare his briefing to the Security Council, scheduled on 26 January.
 “In the meantime Eide continues to be in contact with all relevant actors, and in the lead-up to his visit he urges the leaders to remain focused on resuming the talks”, a UN press release says.


Akel and the government really on the same page

As AKEL’s leader Andros Kyprianou struggleds to differentiate his party’s position from President Nicos Anastasiades’ decision to agree to incorporate the hydrocarbons issue in the talks on the Cyprus problem, Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides has asserted that the government’s position was essentially aligned with that of the communist party, the Cyprus Mail reports.

Following a party leaders’ meeting on Monday, Anastasiades had issued a statement insisting he would not be returning to the peace talks, but for the first time conceded that hydrocarbons could be discussed as part of the final phase of negotiations, and only after territorial adjustments have been discussed.

The move was considered a major concession by opposition parties who criticised him vehemently, with the notable exception of AKEL, which refrained from offering a public position.

Media reports meanwhile suggested that AKEL had agreed with the government’s strategy during the party leaders’ meeting, but Kyprianou promptly denied this during the night-time news programmes, claiming that the government was just trying to show it had broader support than it actually had.

But while every other party criticised the government for making a “dangerous concession” with nothing to show in return, Kyprianou’s charge was precisely the opposite - that Anastasiades hadn’t been clear and bold enough, the paper says.

“We suggested that the President make explicit proposals,” Kyprianou told state radio yesterday. “Turkish Cypriots have rights, solution or no solution. There should have been a clear reference that revenues belonging to the Turkish Cypriot community will be deposited to a special fund that will become available when the Cyprus problem is solved.”

“The issue of hydrocarbons has been resolved, but the President’s statement did not say that,” Kyprianou added. “The only thing left to agree on is the communities’ share of the revenue.”

Kasoulides claimed that AKEL’s leader was just trying to find ways to look as if it was different.  Anastasiades’ statement, he said, was meant to offer the UN special envoy, Espen Barth Eide, a way out of the deadlock.

“President Anastasiades’ statement was not only aimed at domestic audiences – it was also intended for international stakeholders and the United Nations,” Kasoulides said.

He agreed with Kyprianou that the hydrocarbons issue has largely been resolved and that the only issue left to agree was each community’s share of the proceeds. He said this was also contained in the Memorandum of Understanding, adding that the Finance ministry was preparing a bill that will not only designate the percentage of revenues that will be deposited in a fund for future generations, as per the Norwegian model, but will also designate the share allocated to each community.

Face-saving formula needed for talks to resume

                       

An editorial in the Cyprus Mail says that Anastasiades concession that the sharing of the hydrocarbons between the two communities could be discussed at the final stages of the settlement talks, when the territorial adjustments were being negotiated, was obviously not good enough for Turkey. One of Turkey’s demands had been satisfied – to discuss the sharing of the hydrocarbons at the peace talks – but the second, the suspension of drilling by the Cyprus Republic, was not.

This may have been the reason Ankara issued another NAVTEX 24 hours after Anastasiades’ proposal was made public. We assume Turkey, which always makes a point of underlining its position of strength, was not prepared to make any concession before all its demands were satisfied. There is a tiny probability that, despite the issuing of the NAVTEX, the Barbaros would not sail into the Cyprus EEZ, but Turkey has not accustomed us to idle threats, let alone acts of goodwill for the sake of the peace talks.

Poor old Anastasiades has come under attack from all the political parties for his proposal – the hardliners have lambasted him for agreeing to the inclusion of hydrocarbons in the peace talks, while AKEL has accused him of not making a concrete proposal for the sharing of the natural gas. The attacks would have been an irrelevance if his concession led to a resumption of the talks, but the Turks have refused to budge putting him in a very awkward position, the paper says.

The deadlock is threatening to become permanent. The only person who might be able to break it is the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy to Cyprus Espen Barth Eide who is reportedly in contact with both sides. It is a thankless task as both sides are entrenched in their positions, but everything now depends on the Norwegian diplomat finding a face-saving formula that would allow the resumption of talks.

However, with the Turks insisting on their demand for the suspension of the drilling and Anastasiades not willing to suffer the humiliation of giving in to it, the prospects of success of Eide’s salvage operation seem rather dim, the paper concludes.

Now what?

Politis columnist Giorgos Kaskanis says all well and good, we’ve broken off the talks, made all demarches to the EU, got a mention and a resolution, but what do we do now?

All that Anastasiades’ handlings in the end have achieved is to displease everyone, both in Cyprus and abroad, without gaining anything of substance.

But the buck stops with Anastasiades himself, the writer says.  He is the one who must decide whether to continue a policy of trying to please the rejectionists who, in any case cannot ever be pleased, or whether to take the bull by the horns and create new conditions that will lead out of the current impasse. This can only happen if he undertakes substantial and decisive initiatives towards solving the Cyprus problem rather than to pursue the pointless effort of trying to get recognition for the rights of the Cyprus republic.

It is high time, the writer says, that we all recognise that the outcome of what’s happening today is either a permanent solution or permanent partition, with the exploitation of the natural gas being doubtful.

Talk to the people not the parties

In an open letter to President Anastasiades, blogger Constantinos Odysseos says it is doubtful how he will achieve his aim of a bizonal bicommunal federation by trying to please those who don’t want such a solution, but who prefer some other, as yet unspecified (because this brief 40 year time span hasn’t been enough time for them to find exactly what they want), as well as those who want a two-state solution, ie partition (which people are talking openly about now in articles in the press and on the internet).

The writer suspects, however, that we will end up with partition and will be pulling our hair out, as we have done many a time in the past, as a result of our permanent state of confusion that characterises our positions.

There can never be “unity” in the handling of the Cyprus problem, he tells the president. So forget about it! We don’t all want the same thing. Change the way you are thinking and stop believing that the parties represent the people. The vast majority of the people, no longer trust the parties, and if they vote for them it’s only because they have no choice. So talk to the people, he says, address the citizens themselves. They are the ones who will end up having to pay the price if things go wrong in the Cyprus problem again.

Tell us, he goes on, what the facts are. Explain what bizonal federation means, its advantages and disadvantages. Challenge those who are advocating a new strategy, a new basis, new nonsense, to explain exactly what they mean. And finally, explain to the people what partition really means, so that the ordinary citizen stops flirting with this devilish idea that will turn the Greeks of Cyprus into a minority if it ever becomes official.