Game of words

The discussions over the renewal of UNFICYP’s mandate are becoming crucial for the future outcome of the talks on the Cyprus problem, says Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis today. He adds that a game of words is being played and if it works out could lead to a solution, at least on paper.

The key battle being waged is over the phrase is “international conference” and in particular whether or not the UN S-G will be able to call one immediately after the upcoming meeting at Greentree on 20-22 January. It is evident that Ban Ki-moon’s intention is to cap the negotiating procedure by calling an international conference and what is occupying the diplomatic scene at the moment is whether or not he will be able to do so without the approval of the two sides.

The UN S-G has already signalled his intention to call an international conference at the meeting in Geneva last January to which Mr Christofias reacted saying he had no right to do so without approval of the two sides or the approval of the Security Council.

The writer says that according to information the paper has acquired, Ban Ki-moon has sought the opinion of the legal department of the UN and was told he could call an international conference on any issue without needing the agreement of the Security Council and it is up to the sides whether to respond positively or negatively. He said as much in his report on the progress of the talks in March this year when he said that when he deems that enough progress had been achieved in the main issues, and after consulting with the two sides, he could call a multilateral conference. This report, which was approved by the Security Council, leaves the decision up to the S-G. He could consult with the sides but their opinion is not binding.

The writer says that the UN had planned to include mention of heading towards a conference in the statement after the talks at GreenTree but Christofias reacted and it was taken out. However, that doesn’t mean that their intention had changed in any way. It seems that now the British and Americans are trying to have this included in resolution extending the UNFICYP mandate. In fact the Security Council is divided with the British and Americans wanted a clear reference to be made for an international conference, while France proposes something vaguer to the effect that it will be called if the sides approve. It is expected that some kind of compromise will be reached by Tuesday, otherwise the mandate won’t be renewed and the UN troops will have to leave, something highly unlikely. But it won’t be to the extent of removing the UN S-G’s right to call one if and when he deems suitable.

The Greek Cypriot side is hoping that the Security Council stops such an eventuality but its powers are limited. The most it can hope to achieve is to include the phrase “consultations with the two sides” but not as a precondition.

The population census conducted in the north is valid, says Politis.

The paper quotes UN sources as saying that both the methodology used for the census, which took place under UN supervision, as well as the results are reliable.

It was announced that the population in the TRNC us 295,000, including the foreign visitors, but excluding the Turkish army officers and personnel.

The paper says that the number sounds too small to be real, at least as regards the numbers of settlers from the mainland that the Greek Cypriots believe to be in the north. The census figures are also being doubted by the Turkish Cypriot opposition.

Commenting on the census before the figures were announced, President Christofias said this matter must be discussed in depth and that figures must be put on the table because “for us the 4:1 ratio is a very important issue”.

If the international community deems the figures to be valid, then the settler problem is not as great as was thought, and the 4:1 ration is possible in a new solution plan.