Cyprus problem about to blow up

While everyone on the island is focused on Mari and its aftermath, important developments are coming in a few weeks time that will determine the outcome of the talks and the future of the island, with Cyprus soon having to face ultimate partition, says Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis today.

At a meeting recently in New York the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Philip Gordon, urged Cyprus’ Foreign Minister Erato Markoulli, to come up with ideas to face the forthcoming developments because it is expected that the Turkish side will aim to upgrade the TRNC in such a way as to make reunification impossible.

The forthcoming meetings on 30 and 31 October may very likely be the end of the road for the talks only this time there won’t be another round of talks with federation as a basis.

A UN source told the paper that what is at stake is whether the Cyprus problem can be solved on the basis of a bizonal bicommunal federation as has been sought since 1974 or whether this has now become impossible with whatever that may entail.

The UN’s roadmap since before Mari has been:
1. Discussion of all chapters (done)
2. Give and take till 20 October (started on Friday)
3. New tripartite meeting (to be held on 30 and 31 October)
4. International conference towards the end of the year (doubtful)

Since then, however, Christofias’ standing amongst the population has totally been shot, falling to 20%, the lowest ever.

The UN had hoped at first that the Mari events would prove to be an incentive rather than an obstacle for a solution. But after the Polyviou report and the almost universal loss of confidence in the President by the whole of society (with the exception of the hard core of Akel), noone has the illusion that the talks can possibly conclude with a conference.

Friday was the start of the ‘give and take’ phase of the talks. According to reliable sources, President Christofias started off by outlining the internal problems he was facing, the House of Representatives’ decision to discuss the Polyviou report and emphasised the difficulty he had in participating in a ‘give and take’ process. His contribution at the table was similar to his reaction afterwards when in statements to the press he said he’d had it ‘up to here’ with the attacks of the parties and that in any case no ‘give and take’ had taken place.

The truth lies somewhere between the statements of the UN Special Representative in Cyprus, Lisa Buttenheim, who said that they had “entered a new phase” and that of Christofias, who said no give and take had taken place, in other words the process has indeed entered a new phase but nothing substantial has been achieved. The leaders wasted a large part of their time reading documents.

The writer says that it is doubtful that this last phase in Nicosia will result in anything with the two sides having different expectations from the New York meeting. President Christofias wants the meeting to take place but to be just a repeat of all the previous ones, namely an evaluation of the talks and their continuation in Nicosia. The Turkish side wants the New York meeting to be conclusive as was agreed in July and for the UN to allocate responsibility for their failure.

According to Turkish sources, the Assistant UN Secretary-General has assured the Turkish side on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly that the procedure will climax and will end either with a solution or total collapse. This seems to be the position of Alexander Downer, who will push the two sides to make a final and effective give and take.

President Christofias’ internal problems don’t affect the UN’s plans, besides there has never been a lack of problems on either side and nor has Christofias’ contribution been any different when he was in full control of the internal situation. It’s up to the leaders to evaluate the timing, a foreign diplomatic source told the paper.