Plan B will be decided in New York

Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis says that the New York meeting is giving Cyprus yet another chance to use the EU in order to reach a dynamic solution. It is an opportunity to unblock the talks and to put all Plan Bs on the shelf. If it fails then alternative ways will be sought to push Turkey’s accession while partition will acquire its own dynamic so much so that establishing a single state in Cyprus will finally become unfeasible.

The Cyprus Mail’s editorial today says that alarm-mongers and conspiracy theorists have been working at full capacity ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the two leaders with the UN Secretary-General. Nothing for them is too far-fetched or outlandish, as they spin tales about traps, dirty tricks, hidden agendas and ultimatums being planned by Ban Ki-moon and his associates. Some have identified the danger of asphyxiating time-frames and arbitration being imposed while others fear there will be an attempt to change the talks’ procedure.

This was why President Christofias, who grudgingly accepted the invitation to New York, sought assurances from Special Envoy Alexander Downer about the agenda of the meeting. Once these assurances were given, he would have included them in a letter to Ban to ensure there were no changes to the meeting’s agenda. This move was unanimously approved by all the party leaders at their meeting with Christofias last Tuesday. Interestingly, the only way to achieve unanimity among party leaders and political unity is by taking a totally negative stance.

All agreed that there should be no change in the talks’ procedure, no suffocating time-frames no change in the role of the UN, and that an international conference and arbitration should be avoided at all costs. Christofias also received assurances that no joint communiqué would be issued by the UN. And although he agreed to a review of the talks so far being carried out, he demanded that nothing was put in writing. Downer, reportedly, also reassured Christofias that he would not be put under any pressure by Ban.

The question is why has Christofias agreed to go to New York? If his conditions are met, nothing will be achieved at the meeting. If we have ruled out proposals for bridging differences by the UN and the change of the procedure, how will the impasse reached in the talks on property be overcome? If we have ruled out an international conference that would bring Turkey into the process, then we are ensuring against a breakthrough? On the one hand Christofias insists that Ankara holds the key to a solution, but on the other he has dogmatically resisted all attempts to involve Ankara directly in the talks, the ownership of which, he says, must remain Cypriot.

We can only deduce that Christofias is perfectly content with the talks dragging on indefinitely. This is why he does not want the UN to play a more active role in the procedure, a position supported by the hard-line party leaders who are opposed to the settlement that could be achieved. The impression given is that we would be happy to carry on talking inconclusively for another two years. Turkey would have no objection either, as long as the chapters in the accession negotiations with the EU were unblocked, which is their primary concern.

Given this negativity and the UN’s assurances that no pressure will be applied what is the purpose of the meeting? The most likely scenario is that Ban will tell the two leaders that he respected their desire to maintain the Cypriot ownership of the talks, but that the UN wanted results in order to carry on its good offices mission. He might give them a reasonable deadline for reaching agreement on the property issue (a couple of months at most), after which, if they fail, the UN would wind up its mission in Cyprus and issue a report on the reasons for its failure.

It would be a perfectly reasonable position for Ban to take, as the talks have been going on for more than two years without coming anywhere near an agreement. All things must come to an end at some point and nobody outside the island can accuse the UN of giving up on the Cyprus problem unjustifiably. The organisation has been trying to broker an agreement for more than 40 years now. The time has come for the UN to concede defeat, pack up and go home and leave the two sides to reach an agreement on their own.

There would be no pressure, no time-frames, no change of procedure, no arbitration and no joint communiqué, and all the UN’s detractors could sleep easy as they would never again have to worry about traps, hidden agendas and conspiracies aimed at a speedy closure of the Cyprus problem. Christofias has avoided taking any tough decisions on the Cyprus problem for close to two and a half years now, but in New York on Thursday he will, most probably, be forced to make a choice. Carrying on talking inconclusively would not be a choice.

Politis reports that the Economist Intelligence Unit in a recent report says there’s a 20% chance for a solution to the Cyprus problem being found by 2015. It says the climate can only change if there are significant convergences on property. If nothing comes out of the New York meeting, the next talks will be for agreed partition. In such an eventuality the property issue will be discussed without there being a need to discuss the sharing of power. Nevertheless it points to the difficulty of negotiating such a solution and the acceptance of partition.