The UN has a number of scenarios in order to ensure the talks get somewhere by December with or without an agreement, writes Makarios Droushiotis in Politis, and both leaders are fully aware of the UN’s determination to conclude the talks in the very near future.
He says, according to a well-informed source, the UN sees only two options – either an agreed solution, or withdrawal of the UN Secretary-General’s good offices mission.
The UN bases its strategy on the following analysis.
The Cyprus problem has three possible outcomes
- a federal solution based on UN parameters
- the ultimate partition of Cyprus
- the continuation of the status quo
The international community (UN, EU), prefers the first option as one which will solve all problems. However, the biggest obstacle to such an outcome is the ‘stability’ of the status quo, while the passage of time creates the preconditions for partition. Thus their aim is to remove the element of ‘stability’ of the status quo from the equation in order to make the two communities, their leaders and the foreign countries interested in a solution choose between federation or partition.
“Partition is not an easy solution either for the Greek Cypriots or the Turkish Cypriots, nor does it serve the interests of either Turkey or Greece more than a federal solution would so that with the maturity of time Cypriots can truly decide what they want to do with their country”, a well-informed diplomatic source told the paper.
The UN truly believes that an agreement is possible because partition is not any of the participants’ first choice. However, if no common understanding is reached, then it will become “the second best choice”.
If after 36 years of efforts, after all possible political combinations have been tried, this problem still hasn’t been solved, then it cannot be solved and there is no need to waste any more energy and resources on it”, the same source said.
If the two sides cannot agree, then the inevitable outcome will be separation. The belief that if these talks collapse then there will always be another effort to find a federal solution is totally unrealistic.
The UN may not actually set any deadlines, it nevertheless believes that time is not endless. Their plan aims at making the best possible use of the time available up until the end of the year when the UN Secretary-General submits his report.
The last time Alexander Downer was in Turkey, the Turkish Foreign Minister assured him that his country would be amenable to a solution within the UN parameters up until December, as in 2011 Turkey enters a pre-electoral period during which it would be difficult to take any decisions. Britain has also adopted this timeline and has included it in the cooperation strategy that Erdogan signed with Cameron last week.
The most important issue that is still pending in the talks is the property issue. If they agree on this, they could agree on everything. It is a test for the talks themselves.
The leaders’ representatives have agreed to a new formula to discuss the property issue by category. The proposal came from the Turkish side and the Greek Cypriots accepted it. The UN believes progress will come at this level as the issue is more technical than political. They will let the two sides exhaust their efforts and will then make their own proposals.
The UN has already worked out a formula based on ownership of problem properties. According to their study, problematic Greek Cypriot properties cover about 1.5 million donums (skales). They estimate that about half a million will be returned to the Greek Cypriots as a result of territorial adjustments. Turkish Cypriot properties in the south are also about half a million skales, and these have been taken over by the Turkish Cypriot state and exchanged for Greek Cypriot land. This land in the south can be given to Greek Cypriots in exchange, leaving about 700,000 skales out of which half will be retuned and the rest compensated.
In short, from the moment that political decisions are taken, the issue is technical and there are many formulas that can be implemented. If the property deadlock is broken, the UN believe that a solution would be very near, especially since as regards government Christofias and Talat had practically agreed to everything and Eroglu would find it difficult to go back and overturn things.
The property issue cannot differ much from Anan 5 as it is not realistic that the Turkish Cypriots who voted yes in 2004 to be asked to vote on a worse map. It would be equally unrealistic that the Greek Cypriots who voted no in 2004 would vote yes to a plan that did not include Morphou.
Security and guarantees are issues that would be decided at a future international conference, once the property issue is resolved. Britain is willing to give up its interventionist rights, while the Turkish State Minister Bagis recently spoke of the possibility of a complete withdrawal of troops.
Overall the UN has been encouraged by the rapid improvement in the atmosphere around the talks over the last few weeks. The leaders have agreed to continue the talks in August. The leaders’ representatives have agreed to a new procedure for discussing the property issue that could bear fruit faster. The dinners between the leaders (Christofias will be inviting Eroglu) were a “pleasant surprise”. The last meeting between the leaders was the most productive of all.
This contrasts with the undoubtedly negative climate that had been created both through Christofias’ public statements as well as the extremely pessimistic appraisals he gave at recent interviews.
The crucial question is whether or not the leaders have understood that time is running out and have decided to make the most of it, or whether, in the light of Ban Ki-Moon’s forthcoming report, they are trying to avoid or limit their responsibilities and are therefore trying to be more positive.
Nevertheless, whether because of political decisiveness or because of tactical moves, there is a certain mobility in the Cyprus problem, which is bringing some results. Whatever the case, the UN has worked out a number of different scenarios and proposals to expose their true intentions in the very near future.
They are convinced that the opportunity is ripe and agreement can be reached, provided that the political will and determination exists. This will be revealed in early autumn when the UN Secretary-General is expected to intervene with proposals to conclude the procedure. The degree to which the two sides will respond will set the tone for his report in November.
This report will primarily concern the procedure rather than the essence. It will be the result of the ‘crash test’ of the future of the talks and the S-G’s role. It may not make definitive conclusions, but it will prepare the ground for only two possible outcomes:
- that this is the final straight for a solution of the Cyprus problem
- that the problem is unsolvable and he will resign his good offices mission before the Security Council
Even if Russia blocks the report as it did Kofi Anan’s report in 2004, and it doesn’t get approved, it doesn’t cease being a UN document. A permanent member may veto the report, but cannot on its own force the UN S-G to try again, especially if he himself concludes that there is no prospect for a solution.
The UN believes that Christofias’ proposal for Famagusta is the most dangerous bait for partition. If the Cyprus problem is declared unsolvable by the end of the year then this proposal could be a tool in Turkey’s hands. The return of Famagasta in return for removal of the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots and removing all blocks to the chapters in Turkey’s EU entry negotiations, would solve all her problems, except that of Cyprus.
The European solution that all those who are against federation are calling for will come at a future stage with recognition of the TRNC in return for the buffer zone being given back to the Republic of Cyprus and the entry of the north into the EU as a separate state.
We would get an agreed and mild form of partition, a functional and viable solution, without the Republic of Cyprus being dissolved, without rotational presidency and without intercommunal administrative organs.
This scenario is gaining more and more ground, not just in Europe, but also within the Greek Cypriot community itself, amongst leaders of the “patriotic front” expressing themselves more and more openly in favour of an agreed partition as the only realistic solution.
This, warn UN sources, would be the result of a failure in the talks.
The Cyprus Mail’s satirical column Coffeeshop writes that Big Al (UN Representative in Cyprus, Downer) appears to have caught the Kyproulla bug of reading Cyprob significance into every event that takes place. When he uttered his heart-warming message, on leaving the dinner given at chez Eroglu, calling on us to “take some heart from the positive atmosphere”, we all assumed that he may have had a drop too much to drink.
But we were wrong, because the next day, he was still waxing lyrical about the “truly Cypriot occasion” and expressing his admiration for the way the two leaders, their wives, their representatives were “talking about Cyprus in ways that only Cypriots can talk about their own island and sharing such a passion and love of their own island.”
That was not all. “I came away from the dinner thinking that these people can work together, they can solve the Cyprus problem.”
They can also dress up like women and attend a transvestites’ disco, but I doubt they ever will.
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