Last chance for a comprehensive settlement

According to the Cyprus Mail, the biggest obstacle of all to a Cyprus solution is now inertia, and if the current process breaks down it will likely be the last attempt for many years, the International Crisis Group (IGC) said yesterday.

In an article, Hugh Pope, the Turkey/Cyprus project director for the IGC, said that as far as the inertia was concerned, the EU had not yet woken up to the opportunity and risks it faced in Cyprus.Pope said that on the island, cynicism remained widespread. Polls show that fully 40 per cent of the population had become so used to the status quo that they simply did not believe that a settlement would ever happen. “The leaderships, supported by powerful voices from Turkey, Greece and beyond, must begin to tell the story of what a post-settlement Cyprus could look like,” said Pope. “If this year's process breaks down… it will likely be the last attempt at a comprehensive settlement for many years,” he added. Pope said in such an event, the world might “one day” consider a two-state solution on the island. “All sides should count the costs of waiting indefinitely. The old comfort of an unthreatening status quo is no longer available,” said Pope.

He said now that Greek Cypriots were full members of the EU, the stakes and risks were higher. “Failure could lead to new insecurity and even military tensions between Cyprus and Turkey,” Pope said.

“For the Turkish Cypriots, meanwhile it would mean becoming completely dependent on Turkey. And for Turkey, Cyprus would become a worse problem than before: an economic cost, a diplomatic burden, and, above all, the biggest obstacle between the Turks and their ambition for a full place in the European family of nations.”Normalisation of relations between Cyprus and Turkey would on the other hand bring huge economic and other benefits to both countries.

“There are thus many reasons for Christofias to join with Talat to start real work on a settlement,” said Pope, referring to their long-established dialogue and friendship based on their left-wing parties' common anti-nationalist cause. He said in the past six months, despite altercations in the media, they have held long private discussions after their official meetings.

As far as Turkey was concerned, Pope said a successful outcome of the Cyprus talks would be a chance to set Turkey's EU convergence process back on track.“As a guarantor power in Cyprus, Turkey will have its word to say on the settlement. As former Chief of Staff General Yasar Büyükanit has said, it will have to agree that the Turkish Cypriots will be safe within a well-constructed agreement,” Pope said.

“Public opinion over Cyprus is not the problem some in Turkey pretend that it is: polls show a majority once again support the goal of EU membership. Most Turks… have internalised the idea that the Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots can safely live together within the EU.”

Meanwhile President Christofias' returned from an official visit to Russia yesterday having signed seven agreements with Russia covering financial, commercial and political spheres. with strong criticism of NATO, saying Cyprus would never become a member as long as he was President. According to press reports, central to Christofias’ visit were a possible deal on the purchase of €200 million worth of Russian military hardware, and talks on removing Cyprus from Russia’s tax blacklist, tightening regulations on Russian companies repatriating dividends tax-free from Cyprus.

Commenting on Cyprus-US relations, Christofias said Cyprus would never become a member of NATO as long as he was President but added that he did not regard himself as “an enemy” of either the US or the UK. Both countries were needed to help Cyprus reach a comprehensive settlement, he said. He also said Cyprus wished to see Turkey becoming an EU member, but it must respect EU principles. “We do not want the Turkish military to determine Turkey’s foreign policy or to control the socioeconomic life of the country,” he said.

Christofias visit to Russia and the signing of a joint declaration there has angered the Turkish Cypriots. According to press reports, Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat, speaking in Ankara where he has gone for contacts with the Turkish government, said that such actions do not help the negotiations on the Cyprus problem and change the principles agreed by the two leaders. Earlier, Talat's spokesman Hasan Ercakica said: “We want to remind to Mr Christofias that his interlocutor in the Cyprus problem is not in Moscow but in Lefkosia,” he said. “We also want to warn the officials of the Russian Federation on the issue”.