Sunday papers

Sunday Mail
In an article the paper says that tomorrow's announcement on how Turkish state prosecutors plan to proceed with indictments against a clandestine group that allegedly sought to overthrow Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) government will have major implications for Cyprus. Not only did the group – known in the media as Ergenekon – allegedly plan to topple the government, it also plotted to intervene in Cyprus to prevent the possible implementation of the UN’s Annan plan for the reunification of the island. Investigations into the ultra-nationalist Ergenekon group have been ongoing since police raided a house in Istanbul in June last year and found a collection of arms and explosives, along with computer documents outlining plans to overthrow the government. Since then, tens of people have been arrested, including retired military generals, journalists, university lecturers, businessmen and economists. But what makes the ongoing Ergenekon saga interesting for Cypriots is the allegation that the group was plotting to “intervene” to prevent the UN’s Annan plan going to referendum in the north of the island by sparking a military takeover. And what makes the story yet more significant for Cypriots is the allegation, made by a number of journalists in Turkey, that former Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash was to be the one who would give instructions on when and how the takeover was to be carried out. These allegations are based on extracts from the diary of retired Navy General Ozden Ornek, which apparently stated that he and two other retired generals had received “secret messages” from Denktash in February 2004, and that the “theory and practice” of what the generals were to carry out was to be “as directed by Denktash”. Denktash has not responded to these allegations, despite the banner headline of one Turkish Cypriot newspaper on June 5 gleefully implying that Denktash could himself face arrest in the near future. The former leader also refused an interview with this paper, and has limited his public comments on the subject to saying that he is “saddened” by the arrests of those “who would give their all for their country”.

As a result, debate - albeit hushed - continues in the north over Denktash’s possible links with the currently imprisoned alleged plotters. Head of the Cyprus Policy Centre at Famagusta’s Eastern Mediterranean (EMU) Dr Ahmet Sozen says that although Denktash’s links with the nationalist movement in Turkey are “known to be close” he believes Denktash to be “intelligent enough not to associate himself with people engaged in illegal activities”. Similarly, Turkish Cypriot journalist Basaran Duzgun wrote on July 5 that he did not believe Denktash would face arrest if he travelled to Turkey and went further by saying that the fact the Turkish Cypriots got through the referendum without untoward incident was partly down to Denktash’s handling of it. “Denktash’s referendum record is clean,” Basaran insists, although what he says could be perceived as implying that Denktash simply did not think it necessary to instigate a coup. Indeed, by the last round of negotiations on the Annan plan in February 2004, it had become fairy certain the Greek Cypriots were going to reject the plan.But not everyone agrees that Denktash's hands are entirely clean. One Turkish Cypriot political analyst who asked not to be named said, “I don’t have any doubts of his [Denktash’s] involvement. Most of the people who have been arrested are his friends.” He went to say that Denktash had an “ideological identification” with the Ergenekon group and believed, like the group, in pan Turkism, a romantic notion whereby all Turkish-speaking and ethnically Turkish peoples unite to form a greater Turkish nation. The analyst also believes that Denktash, who he says sought the toppling of the Turkish government because of its stance on the Cyrus problem, could face arrest in Turkey “if the government wishes to do so”. “It is after all a crime to encourage a coup against a democratically elected government,” the analyst concluded. Whether Denktash faces arrest, or whether he will be called to give evidence in court, remains to be seen. What is clear is that the Ergenekon scandal will rock Turkey to its foundations, and that major tremors will be felt across Cyprus.
The Mail's satirical column Coffeeshop says Comrade Christofias was positive on the Cyprob as he could not blame the possibility of the virgin birth on the operation of the free market. However what he said worried all the hard-liners. Worrying has become the national pastime. For the next few days the newspapers were full of headlines informing us that Omirou was worried about Cyprob developments, Diko deputies were worried that talks might start, Syllouris was worried about the virgin birth, the Arhcbishop was worried about talk of the existence of constituent states and Phileleftheros editorial writers were worried because everyone else was worrying. It is incredible that in this country of worriers, nobody has deemed the possibility of not having any water in a few months, worthy of worry.

Politis
Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis says that it is expected that on 25 July the two leaders in Cyprus will announce the start of direct talks in Cyprus most probably on 1 September. He quotes reliable sources as saying that the aim is for a quick procedure with agreement being reached preferably before the european elections in order to enable T/Cs to take part, which means that a referendum would have to be held in April or May 2008 at the latest. According to a T/C source, the other side believes that 6 months is more than enough in view of the fact that the Annan plan was discussed for only three months.

Although the G/C side said it did not want tight timeframes, certain developments are pressing: a) 2009 is the only possible time for the T/Cs since in 20010 there will be elections. b) The situation in Turkey is always destabilising so the sooner a solution is found, the safer. c) the EU also wants to see the T/C take part in the European elections otherwise there will be procedural complications.

While there has been progrees on many issues in the working groups the big issues remain untouched and await the two leaders. The UN will leave them to get on with it alone for a while and if there are serious difficulties then the only way out will be to negotiate each issue on the basis of what the Annan plan provided, since the T/Cs have already accepted it in its entirety, while the G/Cs accept it as a basis for a solution.

The major plus is the impression that neither Christofias nor Talat are thinking of anything past a possible solution. What's more everyone agrees that this initiative will indeed be the last one for the Cyprus problem and none of the two leaders wants the partition to become permanent on their watch. Meanwhile Christofias is particularly stron internally after the joint communique on 1 July and Talat's commitment to a solution with a single sovereignty and a single nationality. This was the helping hand that Talat extended to Christofias to help him overcome the criticism he was facing from Tassos Papadopoulos' camp. However, this gave rise to corresponding problems for Talat, who became the butt of criticism from T/C nationalists. Christofias in an interview on Tuesday clarified exactly what is meant by federation and political equality in order to help Talat. Talat's press office issued a press release containing Christofias' position. These moves further sent the message to foreign mediators that both leaders have the will to proceed and are prepared to make sacrifices in order to support their interlocutor. However, they consider the tit for tat war of words to be unnecessary and urged them both to get to the nitty gritty through a process of give and take.

As far as Christofias is concerned, he seems to be winning the battle on the internal front. The president of Diko, Marios Garoyan as well as Marcos Kyprianou, have decided to support Christofias fully when he announces the start of direct talks on 25 July. However, Edek still faces problems in that the party is still under the influence of Vasos Lyssarides. The party's president is in close contact with Tassos Papadopoulos and his public statements are very similar to his. What's more Tassos himself is in close touch with the Archbishop in an effort to derail the developments. Nevertheless, while it is believed that it is already too late for him to do so, he is not expected to sit with arms crossed through a new effort to regroup the middle ground of Edek, Diko, Evroko and the Archbishop.

Alithia
Alithia publishes an interview with Disy leader Nicos Anastasiades in which he stresses that the forthcoming direct talks on the Cyprus problem may be the last chance for a negotiated settlement.

In an editorial the paper refers to President Christofias' meeting in Paris with the UNSG saying that claims by the rejectionist front regarding the exertion of pressure from the UN are not just unfounded but distort reality and reveal an irresponsible bad faith that reproduces the Papadopoulos tactis of confrontation and isolation from those who can and want to extend a helping hand in moving the process towards reunited our country forward. It's been reported that the UNSG will ask the two leaders certain questions in order to find out how they envisage the common basis for a solution will be implemented. What Christofias will try to achieve at his meeting with the UNSG is how the common basis will be implemented with specific timetables regarding territory, property, the settlers, the withdrawal of troops etc. What interests the people now are practical implementations of the things that have been agreed and not constant postponements ad infinitum. Because it has been shown that time is against us.

In another article the paper refers to recent reports in the T/C press saying that in the north the rejectionist front, headed by Rauf Denktash is getting organised in order to tackle the 'threat' of a negotiated settlement of the Cyprus problem and the even bigger 'threat' of the reunification of the island. On our side the rejectionist front also sees developments as a threat, but has not yet decided to coordinate its actions in order to put a halt to this disastrous course. All the of the rejectionist parties have been raising their voices but they have not yet joined forces. Two of the three parties are participating in the government so are somewhat restrained. They disagree but are not yet talking of a threat. The fact that they are in government makes all the difference. The rejectionist parties in the north are not part of the Talat government. The paper quotes an editorial in Haravghi in which the paper asked when do we know that things are going well in the Cyprus problem? When the extremists from both sides start ranting and raving! We know who the extremists on the other side are. But who are the extremists on our side? Haravghi knows them well. And let's not exaggerate, they have not yet started ranting and raving...

Simerini
Savvas Iacovides writing in Simerini says that the familiar forces that supported the Annan monstrosity are reassembling themselves, a process that began well before the elections because Disy leader Anastasiades didn’t really want Kasoulides to win the presidential elections, but wanted Christofias because he had said he had voted no in the referendum in order to cement the yes. For him and Disy Christofias is “doing well”, has created a positive climate, has overturned the negative image of Cyprus, is liked by the foreigners, and his positions on the Cyprus problem are correct. Four months now the previously loud, arrogant towards Tasso Disy has been maintaining a conspiratorial silence. They don’t even criticise him for his faux pas. And they answer any critics against the process as going against the majority will of the population. Their message is clear. The two parties that are sailing along side by side form 65% of the population, so who are you 35% to criticise? But doesn’t this 35% have a right to speak up? Or is it because they’re afraid they’re going to scupper the process? The joint statement of 23 May is proof of Christofias slippery slide towards the disastrous plan. He even said it very clearly last Tuesday. All those who are against a bizonal solution should say so. If not, what? Should they shut up? Not talk? Not judge? Arrogance and autocracy have overtaken the Christofias government with the collusion of Disy applauding them from the sidelines.

In another article the same writer comments on Christofias’ statement that he has no Plan B in the event that the negotiations fail. He says this is yet another serious mistake. First because it shows Turkey that we have no alternative so are more susceptible to blackmail. Second it shows an unbelievable certainty in the outcome of the talks which makes one think either he knows something we don’t or he knows nothing and is proceeding on a wing and a prayer. Third he underestimates the Turkish side which in contrast seems to know what it will do in the event of a deadlock and that this “last chance” disappears. What it will do is proceed to the recognition of the pseudostate while covering itself for entry into the EU. Fourth, Christofias ignores a fundamental principle in diplomacy and politics – nothing is ever definite, everything is fluid. Fifth since he knows that the outcome of the Cyprus problem depends on developments in Turkey, shouldn’t he have a plan to tackle possible side-effects, or dangers?