Sunday 18 May 2008

Sunday papers

The Sunday Mail in its editorial says that the forthcoming meeting between Christofias and Talat on Friday is an opportunity to clear the air. Talat has repeatedly responded harshly to Christofias’ undiplomatic utterances implying that he was being kept on a tight leash by Ankara. Christofias has taken exception to declarations by Talat and the Turkish government that suggested they would no longer accept a federal settlement. He has also sought assurances from the representatives of the five permanent members of the Security Council that the Turkish side would not deviate from past agreements for a federal settlement. The view that the Turkish Cypriot side was not working constructively at committee level, reinforced Christofias’ fears about the changing of the basis for the talks. Supporters of partition seized on the public fall-out, peddling pessimistic forecasts and blaming the other side’s intransigence for the imminent deadlock and stirring public resentment. They are assisted by the fact that the two leaders have been conducting their exchanges through the media, which have a tendency to exaggerate the differences and report things out of context for maximum impact. This is why it is now imperative for the two leaders to re-establish direct contact and talk rather than conduct a meaningless dialogue through the media which serves no useful purpose. They should be prepared to make the small compromises needed to keep the process on track, if they are as committed to the eventual signing of a settlement as they have been claiming.

Makarios Drousiotis writing in Politis analyses the problem that has arisen this week and wonders what Christofias is afraid of. He says that the answer lies in the perceived lack of an agreed basis and a common language between the two leaders as to the shape of the solution being sought. Even though everyone knows that there can't be negotiations on the Cyprus problem from scratch and that the only way is to continue from where things left off in 2004, the two leaders are trapped - Christofias by Papadopoulos' legacy (bury the Annan plan) and Talat by Turkey's ambitions for a solution on a partnership of two states (virgin birth). While the G/C side is avoiding mention of the Annan plan like the devil both in public and in the committees, referring instead to the UN resolutions and the high level agreements, which if analysed end up in the philosophy of the Annan plan (two zones, one state, a single sovereignty, political equality, ownership rights, non permanent derogations, etc), naturally the T/C brings up only those aspects of the Annan plan that suits it and thus only the aspects of the plan that are negative for the G/C are on the table. Their position at the talks are far from what they had accepted in 2004. For example they are discussing whether or not to return Morphou, while in the property issue they are leaning towards an overall exchange rather than the recognition of the title deeds of the Republic of Cyprus as the Annan plan provided. According to a well-informed source the T/C have not proposed changing the basis of a solution, however, their subdued references to a bizonal federation together with the Turkish National Security Council's statement (24/3/08) for a new partnership between two states, as well as the insistence on a virgin birth, have made the G/C side very suspicious. Christofias had hoped that the philosophy of the solution would emerge from the deliberations of the committees but this has not happened and Christofias is afraid to start direct talks without first outlining a mutually acceptable framework for a bizonal, bicommunal federation, which is why he called for the meeting with Talat on 23 May. As he told a reporter from Cumhuriyet, "we want a bizonal, bicommunal federation. Turkey, however, is talking about two states. It is impossible for us to accept this". Talat, on the other hand told the reporter "Turkey is more sensitive on the issue of two regions, but my sensitivities lie more in the issue of political equality. When that is settled so will the question of the two regions". A way out of this dilemma was given by Disy leader Anastasiades who suggested that certain aspects of the Annan plan that answer the main concerns of the G/C such as sovereignty, property ownership rights, non permanent derogations, even the return of Morphou, should be adopted. Even Papadopoulos had said as much supporting a limited number of changes to the Annan plan and pointed out to the dangers if we were to get away from it. This is exactly what has happened today. The fact that the other side is not bound by the philosophy of the Annan plan has given it the opportunity to look for other options, whereas the G/C side, judging from all the recent statements both from the government and Akel, supports a bizonal, bicommunal federation, in other words the two historic compromises that were already made for the sake of a solution. In short by rejecting outright the Annan plan in its entirety, rather than just the aspects it disagreed with, has brought the G/C side to the point of having to start off from the point of its concessions, while freeing Turkey from the significant concessions it had made in 2004.

Alithia says that things are going well in the technical committees and that they are close to agreeing on low-level issues such as allowing ambulances to cross the Green Line through the Limnitis and other roadblocks, setting up a recycling plant in the buffer zone to service both the north and south and turning the buffer zone into a national park. It is expected that the first confidence-building measures will be announced at the Christofias-Talat meeting on 23 May, with immediate effect. The paper adds however that Christofias has his doubts as to whether these measures should be announced now or at a later date as he would prefer more substantive progress to be made first because he does not want to make it sound that great progress has been achieved

Simerini says Christofias is being had. The paper asks who is negotiating the Cyprus problem, is it Christofias, or is it the hardcore "YES" camp through dinner diplomacy led by the super competent Nicos Anastasiades and aided by Dinos Lordos, George Vasiliou, Lellos Demetriades and Kaiti Clerides who are setting up parallel negotiations over a meal and a glass of wine with Talat and Soyer in order to tie down Christofias, forge an alliance with the T/Cs and isolate him if he doesn't accept a solution similar to that of the Annan plan and then blame him for any ensuing deadlock. They're even throwing the old former President Clerides into the fray, one of the chief architects of the Annan plan and one-time leader of the nationalist camp whose slogan was "Cyprus is Greek". Their tactic is to support Christofias for as long as his policy is aligned with that of Disy. And they have the added tactic of saying this is the last chance, as does Talat. Talat is already blackmailing Christofias that he is bound by the 21 March agreement to go to direct talks irrespective of the outcome of the working groups and committees. Meanwhile preparations are surreptitiously being made for the return of the Annan plan as you can tell by statements such as those of Anastasiades that the acceptable parts of the plan could be put on the table and adopted.

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