The UN Secretary-General doesn’t want to hear about the Cyprus problem any more, writes Makarios Droushiotis in Politis.
Going through what all his predecessors did, from U Thant to Kofi Anan, Ban Ki-moon seems to have given up with Cyprus and is looking for a way out of the procedure before he gets even more exposed.
There is only five more weeks of life in the talks, namely until the end of March when Alexander Downer submits his final review to the UN S-G. If the report is positive then a multilateral conference will be convened, but if it is negative the talks will end there and then and he will give up his mission to the Security Council.
Last Thursday Downer had a meeting with the leadership of the Republican Turkish party (CTP). The following day two articles appeared in Yeni Duzen citing high ranking CTP officials as their source. These reports claimed that the UN S-G is so frustrated with the Cyprus problem that he supposedly said he never wants to set foot on the island. He gave so much of his precious time to Cyprus at a time when there are so many more serious problems that required his attention and the response he received was so disheartening and even demeaning to his person. As Kurt Waldheim wrote in his memoirs as regards the Cyprus problem, you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.
The UN sets much of the blame on Dervis Eroglu because with his insistence on the issue of cross voting, he broke the momentum of the talks. However, they don’t consider Christofias to be chomping at the bit for a solution either. Christofias himself admitted the other day that the Greek Cypriot side was not convincing that it wanted a solution. What’s more they don’t forgive him, despite having been warned, for not having taken advantage of Talat being leader of the Turkish Cypriots, and instead dragging his feet. The UN S-G even went as far as paying a visit to Cyprus in order to push the process forward but Christofias dug in and let the visit fail.
After all that transpired before and after Greentree, the UN S-G has now decided to disentangle himself from the process, while giving it one last chance. According to Yeni Duzen, the UN will submit a package of proposals on the chapter of governance and property.
According to Droushiotis’ sources, the UN will simply try to help the two sides reach common positions, as they don’t consider the differences to be insurmountable. Nevertheless they believe that the chances of success are limited.
If there is progress in these two chapters, then the chapter on citizenship will open up, which is not as tough as it seemed at the start. The Greek Cypriot side reported that its total population is 630,000, while the Turkish Cypriot side reported 210,000, a 75-25 ratio, which is within the frameworks being discussed in view of the demographic changes that have occurred since 1974.
If all goes well, then a multilateral conference will be convened, preceded by a discussion on the territorial issue. A map similar to that in the Anan plan is expected to emerge.
The UN believes that in practice an agreement is feasible, but politically the game has probably been lost.
In the more likely scenario that the talks will collapse, Ban K-moon will submit his final report to the UN Security Council and his colleagues are indicating he will point the finger at who is to blame. As to what will follow, many scenaria are being put forward, but the choices are few.
- talks will continue just to keep the hope alive, an unlikely possibility
- talks will be postponed till after the election in 2013. In this case they would not continue where they left off. A renewed effort would probably aim at something much simpler and looser.
- The UN will shut shop in Cyprus and leave the Cypriots to discuss the “Cyprus-owned talks without asphyxiating deadlines and arbitration” for as long as they want
The final say will belong to the UN Security Council. The SC cannot ignore the recommendations of the S-G, nor can there be unanimity without satisfying both sides in Cyprus. A single negative vote would be enough for UNFICYP’s mandate not to be renewed, although it would be more likely that it would be further reduced and gradually withdrawn rather than a sudden withdrawal.
Things will become clearer this coming week when the UN S-G submits his interim report to the Security Council. It is expected that the report will be severe and will warn both sides as to the danger of the talks collapsing.
Nothing will be the same in Cyprus if the talks collapse, says Makarios Droushiotis in another article in Politis. The hope for a solution will completely disappear, especially in the hearts of the people living on the island.
Everything will depend on the UN S-G’s report. If he blames both sides equally and concludes that a bizonal bicommunal federation is unfeasible, recognition of the TRNC will be more difficult. Perhaps the situation will remain as it is until the climate allows for a looser federation.
It seems the Turks aren’t focusing on recognition at the moment. Turkey is more intent on controlling things by Turkifying the TRNC, either by appointing Turks in key positions or by expanding the islamic influence in a society which in essence is not very religious.
Moreover, Turkey is trying to weaken the unions and control the economy of this state, which is not economically viable, doesn’t produce anything, leeches on Turkey’s economy and is despised in Turkey itself. On the other hand, the Turkish Cypriots claim that Turkey never gave them the chance to be economically independent, and nor do they have the same opportunities in Turkey that Turks have in the north.
Turkey is trying to control the basic economic structure of the TRNC through large infrastructure projects eg, water transport, electricity supply, energy, tourism and by nationalising basic services.
This Turkification of the north is adversey affecting the interest of Turkish Cypriots who will soon find themselves facing the dilemma of either completely subjugating themselves to Turkey, emigrating, or moving south and living as a minority in the Republic of Cyprus.
South of the Green Line things are not so tragic in that the Greek Cypriots have at least managed to save their existence as a state. However, the Greek Cypriot presence in the north of the island is coming to an end becoming completely Turkish.
On a personal level it is the refugees who will pay the price and they are already running to the Immoval Property Commission selling their property for peanuts because the political system does not give them much hope for anything more. The situation is touch and go and the outcome of a collapse of the talks too enormous for it to have been handled for eight years now through a policy of “no deadlines or arbitration”. And if it is not turned back (it seems already to be too late), the result of the failure of the Cypriot political system, both to safeguard the integrity of the country and to handle the national tragic events of 1974, will be the complete Turkification of half of Cyprus.
Sunday 26 February 2012
Wednesday 22 February 2012
Leaders discuss property
President Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Dervish Eroglu, yesterday discussed the property issue and would continue to do so on Tuesday next week, the United Nations said.
UN special adviser Alexander Downer said data and papers on property exchanged by the two sides in the past were the basis of discussion.
“As for meetings beyond that, we will have more to say about that next week once the leaders have given some thought as to how they would like to proceed from next week on.”
Asked about the report Downer was due to write reviewing progress, he said he could not speculate on its contents.
“This is a report from me to the Secretary-General at the end of March on the way forward,” he told reporters. “Today is late February so in a month or so, I’ll be turning my mind to this challenging task of producing this report. But I don’t know what it will say. I simply can’t speculate on it at this stage.”
History repeats itself, says former minister Nicos Rolandis in an opinion piece published in the Cyprus Mail and Politis. We commit the same mistakes again and again and we pay the bitter price.
In 1922, he says, 2,000 years of Hellenism in Asia Minor came to an end as a result of huge Greek errors. Similarly in 1974 huge errors probably marked the end of the 3000 years of Greek Cypriot presence in north Cyprus.
The Cyprus problem is going enowhere. There is almost no rational voice around. One silly statement follows another. Populism prevails everywhere. Almost everything goes towards party interests, nothing for the country itself. At the end of the day it seems we shall be left with the UN resolutions and the occupation.
We went to Greentree with three ‘Nos’ in our luggage, constituting the apogee of inconsistency and stupidity. There was a ‘No’ to an international conference, which we were seeking with a passion a few years ago. I recall our jubilation in Moscow in October 1982, when we included it in the joint communiqué.
There was a ‘No’ to arbitration, which is included in Article 33 of Chapter 6 of the UN Charter, as an obligation of the member-states for peaceful settlements of disputes. Through this stand of ours we are contravening the provisions of that charter.
And there was a ‘No’ to “asphyxiating timeframes” (asphyxiating, after 38 years!). In other words we are after an open-ended dialogue, which is the perfect recipe for partition and eventual occupation of Cyprus by Turkey. Yet just a few years ago we were pleading for “a solution yesterday” and declaring time and again that “we, the victims of aggression, want a solution as soon as possible”.
Now, he said, the natural gas issue has been added and warns that, lest we think we are at the centre of the universe, we must not forget how dangerous Turkey can be. People forget, he said that Turkey was threatening to invade Cyprus since 1965 and eventually did so in 1974.
Rolandis suggests what he says could be a win-win situation for everyone. He proposes that as regards the Cyprus problem, all parties endorse the Anglo-American-Canadian Plan of November 1978 as nothing much has changed in all these years, though some adjustments will be necessary on issues like properties and the settlers. On the territorial aspect he proposes that the Gobbi map of 1981 be adopted, which had been accepted by the two big DISY and AKEL and the Turkish side was not averse either. As for the natural gas issue he proposes the best solution would be for to it to be sold and pumped to Greece and/or to Europe through Turkey as the most cost effective method.
As a result the Greek Cypriots would solve the national problem, while at the same time securing the most economic and profitable solution for their gas and settling the issue of the Turkish demands and threats. The Turkish Cypriots would solve the problem and become European citizens while also participating in the hydrocarbon bonanza. Greece would secure the best possible solution of a major national issue as well as acquire another source of supply and/or profitable transportation to Europe of natural gas. For Turkey the solution of the Cyprus problem would open the gates to Europe and would benefit financially from the transportation of the gas through her territory. Lastly, Europe and the international community would settle a problem, which has been a bleeding wound for the past decades.
As regards whether Greek Cypriots can trust Turkey and allow our gas to pass through her territory, he says if we do not trust Turkey after the solution of the Cyprus problem, then why have we been negotiating with the Turkish Cypriots for the past 35 years for a federal solution to our problem? If we do not trust the Turks after a federal settlement, then let us speak clearly. Let us support a two-state arrangement - the Greeks on one side and the Turks on the other. Because there is no other solution left, which can be negotiated.
UN special adviser Alexander Downer said data and papers on property exchanged by the two sides in the past were the basis of discussion.
“As for meetings beyond that, we will have more to say about that next week once the leaders have given some thought as to how they would like to proceed from next week on.”
Asked about the report Downer was due to write reviewing progress, he said he could not speculate on its contents.
“This is a report from me to the Secretary-General at the end of March on the way forward,” he told reporters. “Today is late February so in a month or so, I’ll be turning my mind to this challenging task of producing this report. But I don’t know what it will say. I simply can’t speculate on it at this stage.”
History repeats itself, says former minister Nicos Rolandis in an opinion piece published in the Cyprus Mail and Politis. We commit the same mistakes again and again and we pay the bitter price.
In 1922, he says, 2,000 years of Hellenism in Asia Minor came to an end as a result of huge Greek errors. Similarly in 1974 huge errors probably marked the end of the 3000 years of Greek Cypriot presence in north Cyprus.
The Cyprus problem is going enowhere. There is almost no rational voice around. One silly statement follows another. Populism prevails everywhere. Almost everything goes towards party interests, nothing for the country itself. At the end of the day it seems we shall be left with the UN resolutions and the occupation.
We went to Greentree with three ‘Nos’ in our luggage, constituting the apogee of inconsistency and stupidity. There was a ‘No’ to an international conference, which we were seeking with a passion a few years ago. I recall our jubilation in Moscow in October 1982, when we included it in the joint communiqué.
There was a ‘No’ to arbitration, which is included in Article 33 of Chapter 6 of the UN Charter, as an obligation of the member-states for peaceful settlements of disputes. Through this stand of ours we are contravening the provisions of that charter.
And there was a ‘No’ to “asphyxiating timeframes” (asphyxiating, after 38 years!). In other words we are after an open-ended dialogue, which is the perfect recipe for partition and eventual occupation of Cyprus by Turkey. Yet just a few years ago we were pleading for “a solution yesterday” and declaring time and again that “we, the victims of aggression, want a solution as soon as possible”.
Now, he said, the natural gas issue has been added and warns that, lest we think we are at the centre of the universe, we must not forget how dangerous Turkey can be. People forget, he said that Turkey was threatening to invade Cyprus since 1965 and eventually did so in 1974.
Rolandis suggests what he says could be a win-win situation for everyone. He proposes that as regards the Cyprus problem, all parties endorse the Anglo-American-Canadian Plan of November 1978 as nothing much has changed in all these years, though some adjustments will be necessary on issues like properties and the settlers. On the territorial aspect he proposes that the Gobbi map of 1981 be adopted, which had been accepted by the two big DISY and AKEL and the Turkish side was not averse either. As for the natural gas issue he proposes the best solution would be for to it to be sold and pumped to Greece and/or to Europe through Turkey as the most cost effective method.
As a result the Greek Cypriots would solve the national problem, while at the same time securing the most economic and profitable solution for their gas and settling the issue of the Turkish demands and threats. The Turkish Cypriots would solve the problem and become European citizens while also participating in the hydrocarbon bonanza. Greece would secure the best possible solution of a major national issue as well as acquire another source of supply and/or profitable transportation to Europe of natural gas. For Turkey the solution of the Cyprus problem would open the gates to Europe and would benefit financially from the transportation of the gas through her territory. Lastly, Europe and the international community would settle a problem, which has been a bleeding wound for the past decades.
As regards whether Greek Cypriots can trust Turkey and allow our gas to pass through her territory, he says if we do not trust Turkey after the solution of the Cyprus problem, then why have we been negotiating with the Turkish Cypriots for the past 35 years for a federal solution to our problem? If we do not trust the Turks after a federal settlement, then let us speak clearly. Let us support a two-state arrangement - the Greeks on one side and the Turks on the other. Because there is no other solution left, which can be negotiated.
Thursday 16 February 2012
Talks stuck in a loop?
There is no chance of going to an international conference on the Cyprus problem if the conditions set by the UN Security Council are not met first, President Demetris Christofias said yesterday, the Cyprus Mail reports.
Speaking after a two hour meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu, their first meeting since the two got back from talks with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in New York, Christofias said they had discussed procedural issues during which he clarified the conditions whereby the Greek Cypriot side would consider moving towards an international conference.
“I was given the opportunity to clarify that forcing the process was unacceptable and that if the conditions set by the Security Council itself are not met, then in no case will we accept an international conference,” he said.
“I clarified what we mean by international conference, what we consider the content could be, as well as its composition,” he added.
The president said he made it clear that should a conference take place, the Republic of Cyprus would have to be represented.
“First of all, the SG has not made it clear who he intends to invite. So, we want to clarify this issue,” he said.
On the issue of property, Christofias said he expected the exchange of data as requested by Ban to be completed very soon, adding, “and I hope that at some point we’ll find a common language”.
He noted that to date the delivery of relevant data by the Turkish Cypriot team has been “very poor”.
The talks currently appear stuck on the election of the federal executive, though no deal is in sight yet on the property chapter either, the Cyprus Mail says. While Christofias wants to deal with territory and property together to get a sense of how many refugees will have the right to return, Eroglu refuses to discuss territory until a date has been set for an international conference.
The Turkish Cypriot leader has shown a keen desire to move the process to its endgame, calling on the UNSG to convene a conference regardless of whether progress has been achieved or not.
The two leaders will meet again next Tuesday to discuss property and again on February 28.
The National Council is convening for two all-day sessions to discuss developments in the Cyprus problem following the recent meeting between the leaders of the two communities and the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in New York.
No statements were made after yesterday’s meeting during which Christofias reviewed the Cyprus problem, going over agreements made by previous presidents calling for a bizonal, bicommunal federal solution, in a bid to put things into perspective. Christofias suggested that veering from that framework would lead to partition.
Three parties expressed their positions - EVROKO, EDEK and the Greens – all more or less asking Chistofias to change his strategy.
Politis says that President Christofias defended his handling of the problem through a 50-page document and by saying that he himself improved things as compared to provisions of the Annan plan referring specifically to the executive power and the property issue. As regards the rotating presidency he said this would be not apply if the other side did not also accept cross-voting.
He recalled former President Tasos Papadopoulos’ statement that such plans never disappear saying that the talks did not start from a blank page since there had been previous commitments. He justified the course he had taken through a historical review starting from Archbishop Makarios and ending with Tasos Papadopoulos.
President Christofias rejected the call for a change in strategy by saying that this would be a disastrous choice. He insisted that a bizonal, bicommunal federation is a one-way street and warned of the danger of partition.
He also told the members of the National Council that an exchange of data had taken place as regards the property issue.
During today’s second all-day meeting DIKO, DISY and AKEL are expected to air their views.
Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu has raised the issue of secrecy at his meeting with President Christofias on Tuesday, expressing his unease at the Greek Cypriot side's leaking of the draft solution document to the press without exchanging views on it, Ankara Anatolia news agency reports.
In statements after the meeting, Eroglu said that the Turkish Cypriot side would continue to maintain secrecy, adding that their aim was to reach an agreement soon.
Speaking after a two hour meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu, their first meeting since the two got back from talks with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in New York, Christofias said they had discussed procedural issues during which he clarified the conditions whereby the Greek Cypriot side would consider moving towards an international conference.
“I was given the opportunity to clarify that forcing the process was unacceptable and that if the conditions set by the Security Council itself are not met, then in no case will we accept an international conference,” he said.
“I clarified what we mean by international conference, what we consider the content could be, as well as its composition,” he added.
The president said he made it clear that should a conference take place, the Republic of Cyprus would have to be represented.
“First of all, the SG has not made it clear who he intends to invite. So, we want to clarify this issue,” he said.
On the issue of property, Christofias said he expected the exchange of data as requested by Ban to be completed very soon, adding, “and I hope that at some point we’ll find a common language”.
He noted that to date the delivery of relevant data by the Turkish Cypriot team has been “very poor”.
The talks currently appear stuck on the election of the federal executive, though no deal is in sight yet on the property chapter either, the Cyprus Mail says. While Christofias wants to deal with territory and property together to get a sense of how many refugees will have the right to return, Eroglu refuses to discuss territory until a date has been set for an international conference.
The Turkish Cypriot leader has shown a keen desire to move the process to its endgame, calling on the UNSG to convene a conference regardless of whether progress has been achieved or not.
The two leaders will meet again next Tuesday to discuss property and again on February 28.
The National Council is convening for two all-day sessions to discuss developments in the Cyprus problem following the recent meeting between the leaders of the two communities and the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in New York.
No statements were made after yesterday’s meeting during which Christofias reviewed the Cyprus problem, going over agreements made by previous presidents calling for a bizonal, bicommunal federal solution, in a bid to put things into perspective. Christofias suggested that veering from that framework would lead to partition.
Three parties expressed their positions - EVROKO, EDEK and the Greens – all more or less asking Chistofias to change his strategy.
Politis says that President Christofias defended his handling of the problem through a 50-page document and by saying that he himself improved things as compared to provisions of the Annan plan referring specifically to the executive power and the property issue. As regards the rotating presidency he said this would be not apply if the other side did not also accept cross-voting.
He recalled former President Tasos Papadopoulos’ statement that such plans never disappear saying that the talks did not start from a blank page since there had been previous commitments. He justified the course he had taken through a historical review starting from Archbishop Makarios and ending with Tasos Papadopoulos.
President Christofias rejected the call for a change in strategy by saying that this would be a disastrous choice. He insisted that a bizonal, bicommunal federation is a one-way street and warned of the danger of partition.
He also told the members of the National Council that an exchange of data had taken place as regards the property issue.
During today’s second all-day meeting DIKO, DISY and AKEL are expected to air their views.
Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu has raised the issue of secrecy at his meeting with President Christofias on Tuesday, expressing his unease at the Greek Cypriot side's leaking of the draft solution document to the press without exchanging views on it, Ankara Anatolia news agency reports.
In statements after the meeting, Eroglu said that the Turkish Cypriot side would continue to maintain secrecy, adding that their aim was to reach an agreement soon.
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