A long and lively discussion on governance and the division of powers was held this afternoon between the leaders of the two communities in Cyprus part of the ongoing talks on the Cyprus problem, as the UN Special Representative in Cyprus, Alexander Downer reported.
He said the discussion would continue on Thursday morning and that afterwards the meetings would follow the schedule whereby the leaders will be more or less meeting every Monday up until the middle of January.
“This may vary from time to time”, he said “depending on the circumstances, but this is the intention at this stage”.
Mr Downer added that further talks would take place with both sides during the week touching on issues that were raised today as well as other questions that the two leaders had in relation to the talks.
Moreover, he said that the two leaders had jointly invited him and Lisa Buttenheim to a dinner in Pyla on 5 January, which he warmly accepted on behalf of the UN and was looking forward to it.
Turkish daily Zaman reports that Turkey’s Chief Negotiator for EU affairs, State Minister Egemen Bagis, warned that the Turkish Cypriot state in the north of the island could be internationally recognized as an independent state if the Greek Cypriots continue to drag their feet in negotiations for a settlement on the island.
“Turkey has a certain amount of leverage. There are countries waiting for a signal to recognize the TRNC, to initiate diplomatic relations with it”, he said.“If the Greek Cypriots really want a solution, they should make good use of the coming six-month period; otherwise they will regret it”, he added.
Turkey has offered to bow to EU demands and open its ports, airports and airspace to Cyprus under what it called a "Taiwanese-style" diplomatic arrangement to help drive Cypriot reunification talks resuming on Monday under U.N. pressure for a breakthrough, the Cyprus Mail reports quoting Reuters.
Turkish EU Minister Egemen Bagis told Reuters he believed that the simple arrangement would help free up talks over Cyprus and would not require recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus but would merely reflect a trade relationship. He said Turkey will open all of her airports, sea ports and airspace to Greek Cypriot planes and vessels as soon as a British Airways, an Air France, a KLM or a Lufthansa airplane lands at the Ercan airport in northern Cyprus.
Monday, 28 November 2011
Sunday, 27 November 2011
Solution or two states
There will either be a solution or recognition of the TRNC, Turkish President Abdullah Gul told British Prime Minister David Cameron during an official visit he paid to London this week.
According to Politis, he urged the British to do all they could now so that a solution can be achieved by June 2012 when Cyprus takes over the EU presidency. Otherwise there will be two states in Cyprus, as former British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said would happen, he added. Many opportunities have been lost, he said, because they had insisted on things that could not be achieved.
Moreover, Bayrak television reported that, speaking at a joint press conference with the British Prime Minister, Gul said that both Turkey and Britain, as guarantor powers in Cyprus, supported the process and both sides in Cyprus needed to be encouraged to go for a settlement.
"I specifically emphasised that if the European Union fails to act with a strong political will, the reunification of the island might become impossible due to the Greek Cypriot side's unwillingness for a solution," Gul said.
Also, according to Turkey’s official website, Gul told members of the House of Commons that the EU Presidency of such a “half government” demonstrates a weakness on the part of the EU.
Reporting on comments Gul made to journalists on the plane on his way back from London, Politis says he said he had told Cameron that he hoped that a decision for reunification of the island would be reached, as this was the right time for this to happen.
“After that we will head towards two separate states when you too will be forced to recognise that which we already recognise”, he is reported to have said.
Gul said his hopes were that agreement could be reached by the end of the year, for there to be a new plan and then a referendum.
According to Politis, he urged the British to do all they could now so that a solution can be achieved by June 2012 when Cyprus takes over the EU presidency. Otherwise there will be two states in Cyprus, as former British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said would happen, he added. Many opportunities have been lost, he said, because they had insisted on things that could not be achieved.
Moreover, Bayrak television reported that, speaking at a joint press conference with the British Prime Minister, Gul said that both Turkey and Britain, as guarantor powers in Cyprus, supported the process and both sides in Cyprus needed to be encouraged to go for a settlement.
"I specifically emphasised that if the European Union fails to act with a strong political will, the reunification of the island might become impossible due to the Greek Cypriot side's unwillingness for a solution," Gul said.
Also, according to Turkey’s official website, Gul told members of the House of Commons that the EU Presidency of such a “half government” demonstrates a weakness on the part of the EU.
Reporting on comments Gul made to journalists on the plane on his way back from London, Politis says he said he had told Cameron that he hoped that a decision for reunification of the island would be reached, as this was the right time for this to happen.
“After that we will head towards two separate states when you too will be forced to recognise that which we already recognise”, he is reported to have said.
Gul said his hopes were that agreement could be reached by the end of the year, for there to be a new plan and then a referendum.
Monday, 21 November 2011
Solution possible in January
Foreign and European diplomatic circles believe that considerable progress in the Cyprus talks was achieved at Green Tree in New York, so much so that important developments will take place in January and possibly even a solution, says Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis yesterday.
This fits in with the UN announcement as well as information from Turkish sources, but is completely at variance with public statements by President Christofias and Akel. The writer finds it a complete mystery why everyone connected with the Cyprus problem believes that something positive may happen while in Cyprus the picture being painted is bleak.
He says this information doesn’t just come from journalists’ sources, but also from top European leaders. A case in point is Disy leader Nicos Anastasiades who came back from a trip to Europe last week saying that both the British Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel all of whom he met with, believe that progress has been achieved in the talks and expect even more progress to come.
Brussels too is of the same opinion. At meetings House President Yiannakis Omirou had with Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, the latter outrightly rejected the view that the talks aren’t progressing due to Turkish intransigence. Barroso, says the paper, is actively involved in the Cyprus problem and is convinced a solution can be reached now. Barroso’s representative, Jorge Cesar das Neves, attended the talks at Green Tree. The fact that EU leaders are firmly convinced that the talks are going well and will go even better in January cannot be a misunderstanding or a delusion.
Confusion, however, reigns supreme from the statements emanating from the Cyprus government. Two things are likely:
1. The talks did in fact go well and there are indeed prospects for a solution, but Christofias is keeping expectations low so that there will not be any preemptive reactions.
2. The two sides see things differently, and the UN and international community don’t share the Cypriot point of view.
The fact remains that the Cyprus government’s credibility is in doubt. No one takes what they are saying at face value. For example, in early 2010 all information indicated that agreement had been reached on the issue of governance, yet Christofias denied it, only today to accuse the Turkish side of reneging on what they had previously agreed.
What is certain is that the time for playing games is over. In January Christofias must either admit there has been progress and agree to an international conference giving rise to reactions internally, or he must lead matters to failure and take responsibility for it, thereby proving the Turks right when they say that the Greek Cypriots have got it good being in the EU and aren’t interested in a solution.
The rhetoric for talks without a timetable or arbitration has become ridiculous and is laughed at in diplomatic circles. Clearly, the talks have already entered their final phase following a very clear timetable and agenda. Last Wednesday Christofias and Eroglu agreed to a all the dates leading to Green Tree 2 which is due to take place around 20 January, as well as on a working programme covering all the chapters. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Lisa Buttenheim, informed the two leaders that the UN will expand its role during the final round of talks. The leaders will be meeting only once a week when they will simply confirm what has been agreed during the previous to-ing and fro-ing and there will also be meetings of UN technocrats with each negotiating team. Naturally there will be some kind of mediation and solutions will be put forward, but without each side knowing the other side’s ultimate position. Not allowing the UN to put forward proposals or to play a mediating role is tantamount to showing bad faith. Besides the whole process cannot be completed without the UN’s active involvement. The UN itself believes that the tools are there, the two sides’ positions understood, and all that is needed is political will. If they don’t reach an agreement now, they will never be able to do so, not in a year’s time, nor even in ten. What the UN is trying to do is to see whether a federal solution is ultimately feasible or not.
The UN S-G will outline his intentions in his forthcoming report on the renewal of UNFICYP. He expects that after Green Tree 2 this report will be positive. But if the process fails, he will explain why. Both sides are already urging Ban Ki-moon to point the finger at the other side. Their efforts not to take the blame does have the effect of somewhat pushing the process forward. But if they are doing so under the pressure of not wanting to take responsibility whereas in actual fact don’t really believe in the solution, then the solution will be a shotgun wedding and prospects of it succeeding are dim.
One thing that worries the international community is Turkey’s apparent lack of enthusiasm in a solution compared with before. The Turkish side is convinced that Christofias cannot solve the Cyprus problem. If he didn’t dare go for it when he was stronger internally and had Talat as his interlocutor, how is he going to be able to do so now that he is weak and has Eroglu on the other side? According to Turkish sources, this is why Erdogan changed his tune and hardened his rhetoric on Cyprus, while at the same time keeping tensions high over the natural gas exploration.
Alexander Downer is expected to visit Ankara in the next few days to check out the Turkish government’s intentions and to seek their support for the climax of the talks. Turkey exerted all its influence to get the UN to ensure that January is the endgame and June the date for wrapping up the procedure if the UN S-G proceeds to an international conference.
Turkey has made it clear that if the talks fail it will change policy and turn towards upgrading the TRNC and its economy with development work and will give TRNC citizenship to Turks in order to control local politics better. According to Turkish Cypriot sources, even Eroglu is concerned about the population increase in the north because the Turkish Cypriots will be undermined. That’s why agreement was reached on the citizenship issue in New York whereby those who had already received TRNC citizenship would be covered by international law in a future settlement.
This fits in with the UN announcement as well as information from Turkish sources, but is completely at variance with public statements by President Christofias and Akel. The writer finds it a complete mystery why everyone connected with the Cyprus problem believes that something positive may happen while in Cyprus the picture being painted is bleak.
He says this information doesn’t just come from journalists’ sources, but also from top European leaders. A case in point is Disy leader Nicos Anastasiades who came back from a trip to Europe last week saying that both the British Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel all of whom he met with, believe that progress has been achieved in the talks and expect even more progress to come.
Brussels too is of the same opinion. At meetings House President Yiannakis Omirou had with Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, the latter outrightly rejected the view that the talks aren’t progressing due to Turkish intransigence. Barroso, says the paper, is actively involved in the Cyprus problem and is convinced a solution can be reached now. Barroso’s representative, Jorge Cesar das Neves, attended the talks at Green Tree. The fact that EU leaders are firmly convinced that the talks are going well and will go even better in January cannot be a misunderstanding or a delusion.
Confusion, however, reigns supreme from the statements emanating from the Cyprus government. Two things are likely:
1. The talks did in fact go well and there are indeed prospects for a solution, but Christofias is keeping expectations low so that there will not be any preemptive reactions.
2. The two sides see things differently, and the UN and international community don’t share the Cypriot point of view.
The fact remains that the Cyprus government’s credibility is in doubt. No one takes what they are saying at face value. For example, in early 2010 all information indicated that agreement had been reached on the issue of governance, yet Christofias denied it, only today to accuse the Turkish side of reneging on what they had previously agreed.
What is certain is that the time for playing games is over. In January Christofias must either admit there has been progress and agree to an international conference giving rise to reactions internally, or he must lead matters to failure and take responsibility for it, thereby proving the Turks right when they say that the Greek Cypriots have got it good being in the EU and aren’t interested in a solution.
The rhetoric for talks without a timetable or arbitration has become ridiculous and is laughed at in diplomatic circles. Clearly, the talks have already entered their final phase following a very clear timetable and agenda. Last Wednesday Christofias and Eroglu agreed to a all the dates leading to Green Tree 2 which is due to take place around 20 January, as well as on a working programme covering all the chapters. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Lisa Buttenheim, informed the two leaders that the UN will expand its role during the final round of talks. The leaders will be meeting only once a week when they will simply confirm what has been agreed during the previous to-ing and fro-ing and there will also be meetings of UN technocrats with each negotiating team. Naturally there will be some kind of mediation and solutions will be put forward, but without each side knowing the other side’s ultimate position. Not allowing the UN to put forward proposals or to play a mediating role is tantamount to showing bad faith. Besides the whole process cannot be completed without the UN’s active involvement. The UN itself believes that the tools are there, the two sides’ positions understood, and all that is needed is political will. If they don’t reach an agreement now, they will never be able to do so, not in a year’s time, nor even in ten. What the UN is trying to do is to see whether a federal solution is ultimately feasible or not.
The UN S-G will outline his intentions in his forthcoming report on the renewal of UNFICYP. He expects that after Green Tree 2 this report will be positive. But if the process fails, he will explain why. Both sides are already urging Ban Ki-moon to point the finger at the other side. Their efforts not to take the blame does have the effect of somewhat pushing the process forward. But if they are doing so under the pressure of not wanting to take responsibility whereas in actual fact don’t really believe in the solution, then the solution will be a shotgun wedding and prospects of it succeeding are dim.
One thing that worries the international community is Turkey’s apparent lack of enthusiasm in a solution compared with before. The Turkish side is convinced that Christofias cannot solve the Cyprus problem. If he didn’t dare go for it when he was stronger internally and had Talat as his interlocutor, how is he going to be able to do so now that he is weak and has Eroglu on the other side? According to Turkish sources, this is why Erdogan changed his tune and hardened his rhetoric on Cyprus, while at the same time keeping tensions high over the natural gas exploration.
Alexander Downer is expected to visit Ankara in the next few days to check out the Turkish government’s intentions and to seek their support for the climax of the talks. Turkey exerted all its influence to get the UN to ensure that January is the endgame and June the date for wrapping up the procedure if the UN S-G proceeds to an international conference.
Turkey has made it clear that if the talks fail it will change policy and turn towards upgrading the TRNC and its economy with development work and will give TRNC citizenship to Turks in order to control local politics better. According to Turkish Cypriot sources, even Eroglu is concerned about the population increase in the north because the Turkish Cypriots will be undermined. That’s why agreement was reached on the citizenship issue in New York whereby those who had already received TRNC citizenship would be covered by international law in a future settlement.
Monday, 14 November 2011
Different things happened in New York to what Christofias says
President Christofias’ statements in Cyprus and even are in stark contrast to what actually happened in New York and to what the UN S-G himself said, according to Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis.
Even in his briefing of the National Council he referred to things that hadn’t even been discussed, and when asked to submit the convergences in writing to the Council he refused for fear of leaks.
According to reliable sources, he says that the UN S-G’s statement after the talks, which was approved by both leaders, is the only reliable description of the New York meetings and the only one that binds them.
The government tried to put a different spin on the UN S-G’s statements by claiming he had described the talks more optimistically than events prescribed and that when he talked of “encouraging progress” he just meant that the two sides understood each other’s positions.
A source that is fully informed as to what actually transpired at the talks told the writer that these interpretations are “sophistries” used to serve the needs of the political game being played in Cyprus.
The source said that the UN S-G said exactly what he meant and the Security Council supported this by saying that it is convinced that a solution is possible and that all that is needed is political will.
The source added that to some extent such political shenanigans are understandable in the internal game being played but the talks have now entered an extremely serious phase to be faced with such tactics.
Moreover, the source said, it’s worrisome that not only are false interpretations being made, but information is being leaked that does not correspond with reality.
One such example, the source said, was when President Christofias told the National Council, as was leaked in the press, that Ban Ki-moon was annoyed with Eroglu over the issue of the weighted vote. Apparently Christofias didn’t even raise such an issue and nor did he withdraw his proposal for rotating presidency. This was one of the more positive developments from the talks, and besides nor was the question of the weighted vote even discussed. In fact in his summing up the UN S-G said there were two proposals on the table as regards elections for the executive as follows:
- Christofias’ proposal for separate election for the first term of government and rotating presidency on a 4:1 ratio. Automatic adoption of weighted for the second term
- Eroglu’s proposal for separate elections for the first term and rotating presidency on a 7:3 ratio. Weighted voting in the second term provided it is approved by the Senate.
The differences are not unbridgeable and it was agreed to finish the discussion in Cyprus. Agreement was almost reached on the question of citizenship, while on the property issue it was agreed that the owner of the property would have first say provided that he lived in the property in 1974. Compensation will be given to inheritors.
The writer goes on to say that Western diplomats, who were briefed by the UN as to what happened at the talks, are puzzled by Christofias’ statements that nothing whatsoever happened in New York and that nothing is expected to happen in January either, and are trying to find explanations. If this is all for internal consumption, they wonder, how is he going to win the people over if there is agreement at Greentree 2? If he is afraid of reactions and is just wasting time, what will he do in January when time is up? Or perhaps he truly believes what he says, and if so, then maybe he has a problem of comprehension, agreeing on one thing and understanding something totally different.
Equally unfounded are Christofias’ statements that there will be other meetings with the UN S-G after the January meeting, and that the option also exists to freeze the procedure till after the elections. If anything was made absolutely clear in New York, it was that this is the endgame. Christofias told the S-G that only he can solve the Cyprus problem and complained bitterly about the opposition, particularly about Anastasiades’ transformation and that he would prefer that everything is over before an international conference so that there are no leftovers for the next President. It was in this context that he said he would not be sitting opposite them in 2013.
Despite the fact that it is clear that after New York the procedure is reaching its climax and one would expect that the climate would improve over the next few months, on the contrary what is actually happening is that the blame game is climaxing. According to information, the Turkish side has sent all of Eroglu’s statement and all of Christofias’ statements to Alexander Downer and asked him to compare them in an effort to show evidence for bad will on the part of the Greek Cypriot side in the event of failure at Greentree 2.
An editorial in the Mail on Sunday refers to an interview with former Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat who said that his friend President Christofias wanted a Cyprus settlement, “but he was a coward”, being afraid of his government alliance partners. The paper says this cowardice has been evident through most of the Christofias presidency, which has been singularly unable to deal decisively with any of the big issues it has faced. In these three-and-a-half years, Christofias has exhibited most of the traits of weak leadership from fear of taking unpopular decisions to abrogation of responsibility and hyper-sensitivity to criticism. On the Cyprus talks, his cowardice may have served him well, as the majority of the Greek Cypriots do not seem very keen on a settlement, but the do-nothing approach on public finances has led us to the brink of disaster. We just hope that in a few months’ time defenders of Christofias would not be using a variation of Talat’s observation – he wanted to save the economy but he was a coward.
Even in his briefing of the National Council he referred to things that hadn’t even been discussed, and when asked to submit the convergences in writing to the Council he refused for fear of leaks.
According to reliable sources, he says that the UN S-G’s statement after the talks, which was approved by both leaders, is the only reliable description of the New York meetings and the only one that binds them.
The government tried to put a different spin on the UN S-G’s statements by claiming he had described the talks more optimistically than events prescribed and that when he talked of “encouraging progress” he just meant that the two sides understood each other’s positions.
A source that is fully informed as to what actually transpired at the talks told the writer that these interpretations are “sophistries” used to serve the needs of the political game being played in Cyprus.
The source said that the UN S-G said exactly what he meant and the Security Council supported this by saying that it is convinced that a solution is possible and that all that is needed is political will.
The source added that to some extent such political shenanigans are understandable in the internal game being played but the talks have now entered an extremely serious phase to be faced with such tactics.
Moreover, the source said, it’s worrisome that not only are false interpretations being made, but information is being leaked that does not correspond with reality.
One such example, the source said, was when President Christofias told the National Council, as was leaked in the press, that Ban Ki-moon was annoyed with Eroglu over the issue of the weighted vote. Apparently Christofias didn’t even raise such an issue and nor did he withdraw his proposal for rotating presidency. This was one of the more positive developments from the talks, and besides nor was the question of the weighted vote even discussed. In fact in his summing up the UN S-G said there were two proposals on the table as regards elections for the executive as follows:
- Christofias’ proposal for separate election for the first term of government and rotating presidency on a 4:1 ratio. Automatic adoption of weighted for the second term
- Eroglu’s proposal for separate elections for the first term and rotating presidency on a 7:3 ratio. Weighted voting in the second term provided it is approved by the Senate.
The differences are not unbridgeable and it was agreed to finish the discussion in Cyprus. Agreement was almost reached on the question of citizenship, while on the property issue it was agreed that the owner of the property would have first say provided that he lived in the property in 1974. Compensation will be given to inheritors.
The writer goes on to say that Western diplomats, who were briefed by the UN as to what happened at the talks, are puzzled by Christofias’ statements that nothing whatsoever happened in New York and that nothing is expected to happen in January either, and are trying to find explanations. If this is all for internal consumption, they wonder, how is he going to win the people over if there is agreement at Greentree 2? If he is afraid of reactions and is just wasting time, what will he do in January when time is up? Or perhaps he truly believes what he says, and if so, then maybe he has a problem of comprehension, agreeing on one thing and understanding something totally different.
Equally unfounded are Christofias’ statements that there will be other meetings with the UN S-G after the January meeting, and that the option also exists to freeze the procedure till after the elections. If anything was made absolutely clear in New York, it was that this is the endgame. Christofias told the S-G that only he can solve the Cyprus problem and complained bitterly about the opposition, particularly about Anastasiades’ transformation and that he would prefer that everything is over before an international conference so that there are no leftovers for the next President. It was in this context that he said he would not be sitting opposite them in 2013.
Despite the fact that it is clear that after New York the procedure is reaching its climax and one would expect that the climate would improve over the next few months, on the contrary what is actually happening is that the blame game is climaxing. According to information, the Turkish side has sent all of Eroglu’s statement and all of Christofias’ statements to Alexander Downer and asked him to compare them in an effort to show evidence for bad will on the part of the Greek Cypriot side in the event of failure at Greentree 2.
An editorial in the Mail on Sunday refers to an interview with former Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat who said that his friend President Christofias wanted a Cyprus settlement, “but he was a coward”, being afraid of his government alliance partners. The paper says this cowardice has been evident through most of the Christofias presidency, which has been singularly unable to deal decisively with any of the big issues it has faced. In these three-and-a-half years, Christofias has exhibited most of the traits of weak leadership from fear of taking unpopular decisions to abrogation of responsibility and hyper-sensitivity to criticism. On the Cyprus talks, his cowardice may have served him well, as the majority of the Greek Cypriots do not seem very keen on a settlement, but the do-nothing approach on public finances has led us to the brink of disaster. We just hope that in a few months’ time defenders of Christofias would not be using a variation of Talat’s observation – he wanted to save the economy but he was a coward.
Sunday, 6 November 2011
Never so close to a settlement
Greek and Turkish Cypriots have never before been so close to an agreed settlement but the next few months will be critical as the United Nations push for a deal before Cyprus assumes the presidency of the EU in July next year, Makarios Droushiotis says writing in Politis and the Cyprus Mail.
According to informed sources close to the negotiations, both leaders gave assurances to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, during their meeting in New York last week that they were committed to producing the convergences he had asked for by the time they meet him next in January.
Significant differences nevertheless remain between the two sides, but Ban made it absolutely clear to them that his good offices mission will be terminated in the next few months if the sides do not break the deadlock.
The timeframe for a solution is June 2012. Until then there must be an agreement; the two sides must hold referenda and a federal Cyprus will assume the presidency of the Council of the EU.
If the deadlock is not broken by February, the UN will shut its good offices mission in Cyprus, the source said.
The option of freezing the talks until 2013 is unrealistic and it is something both leaders have fully understood. In fact, Christofias told Ban that he would not be a presidential candidate for a second term and has no plans to continue the talks in 2013. Once the UN team had made sure that the two sides had clearly understood the time constraint, Downer and Pascoe asked both sides if they believed they could bridge their differences. Both Christofias and Eroglu said they could.
The fact that they understood the time factor is perhaps the biggest achievement of the talks at Greentree. Talks without a timeframe and arbitration no longer constitute valid rhetoric. A very clear roadmap and a new procedure have emerged culminating in the endgame. If there is political will and courage, an agreement is possible.
Talks in Nicosia will start again on Thursday with one weekly meeting between the two leaders.
The leaders’ aides and working groups will take it from there while UN representatives together with their experts will be shuttling between the two sides, enriching discussions with their ideas and suggestions.
The UN has assured that they are not interested in imposing any solution, seeking especially to dispel the fears of the Greek Cypriots who vehemently oppose arbitration. As Downer said after briefing the Security Council, “we cannot want a solution more than the Cypriots themselves”, stressing that the role of the UN is to help the two sides reach a solution not to impose it. “They must be happy with the solution they will have reached”.
According to the new roadmap, the final round of talks in Cyprus will cover all chapters that are still open - governance, territory, property and citizenship.
A new tripartite meeting will be held in New York around January 15. Ban expects that the new meeting would be part of the final phase and not its beginning in the sense that when the leaders go to New York they would have already agreed on the four remaining chapters. If they go to the new meeting empty handed they would just be confirming the deadlock in the talks.
Sources said there is neither time nor inclination for another tripartite meeting. In New York there would only be two possibilities - declaring a deadlock or an agreement on the internal aspects and scheduling a multilateral meeting. If all goes as planned, the multilateral meeting will again be held in New York at the end of February or early March. If the talks reach the point of a multilateral meeting their success is a given, but if they collapse, it will happen in February. However, while a settlement is feasible on paper, it would have no value if it is not approved by both communities.
The UN believes that Christofias can count on the strong backing of the EU in case of a settlement, while Russia has given assurances that it will back a deal that is acceptable by both communities. Turkey is still willing, but less enthusiastic than before. Ban has already asked for support from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan while his envoy in Cyprus, Alexander Downer is planning a trip to Ankara. The United States will not get involved in the talks but have pledged to provide help backstage. The UN Secretary-general has the backing of the Security Council. Its President, José Filipe Moraes Cabral, said that both Ban’s and Downer’s efforts have the Council’s strong support. He added: “The Council agreed that the sides should make additional efforts and display the necessary political will to move forward and conclude the negotiations in a positive way.”
Ankara believes all options are open as far as the Cyprus problem is concerned and is preparing for all eventualities, an article in Politis says.
Ankara is satisfied with the New York talks and wants it all cleared up by July 2012 when Cyprus takes on the EU Presidency.
“We are optimistic, we hope that the talks on Cyprus will have a positive outcome” and that they will be able to reach a federal solution by January, a Turkish diplomatic source told the paper, although they are also concerned that the internal political situation in Cyprus might create complications.
If the problem is solved, Ankara predicts it will be followed by positive developments. First the road for Turkey’s entry into the EU will open, although it acknowledges that obstacles still remain and that Cyprus is just the excuse for keeping Turkey out. Secondly a solution will smooth out relations with Greece, and thirdly it will put an end to the crisis in the East Mediterranean over exploration for natural gas, as Turkey will stop its exploration efforts in Cyprus’ EEZ and will recognise the rights of a united Cyprus to exploit its natural resources.
However, if there is no solution, Ankara will harden its stance. It already has a plan B namely to turn the occupied part of the island into a kind of Taiwan, as it realises it doesn’t have much chance of getting the north recognised. Above all it will continue its exploration for natural gas and plans to drill in the same area as Noble Energy.
Another ‘thriller’ unfolded in New York last Monday, says the Cyprus Mail’s satirical column Coffeeshop, at least in the eyes of cliché-peddling newspaper headline writers, who are under the illusion they can sex-up a typically dull Cyprob story on their front page by labelling it a ‘thriller’. Let’s face it Cyprob talks are as exciting and suspenseful as a visit to the supermarket.
We seem to witness exactly the same thriller every time the two hillbilly leaders go to Big Apple for three-way handshakes and smiles with the normally poker-faced Ban Ki-moon.
In the run-up to the thriller, all the opposition parties predicted that there would be traps for the comrade – laid by Big Bad Al and his evil Yank backer, Lyn Pascoe, the pro-Turkish Under-Secretary-General, affectionately referred to as ‘an employee of the UN’ - who would be forced to participate in give-and-take, discuss UN bridging proposals, accept arbitration, an international conference and asphyxiating time-frames.
The comrade and his entourage meanwhile insist that nothing of the sort would happen, implying that the meeting would lead nowhere, in short, just another thriller without the thrills. This is the intergalactic scale of the lunacy that the Cyprob inspires. The government considers it a mega political success, a reason to gloat, when a meeting with Ban produces no results.
And the opposition parties, which had been ringing alarm bells about the danger of progress being made, forget about the traps and complain that Ban issued a statement that did not condemn the Turkish side’s intransigence. If, God forbid, Ban reported progress, they start to moan that he is covering up the intransigence and the comrade was to blame, for not taking a tougher stance.
Last week they were outraged about the change of the format of the talks when the UN decided to have proximity talks instead of direct talks with Ban. All our parties protested, fearing that the change of format could produce results, the last thing they wanted. DIKO warned that “there was a possibility proximity talks would lead to indirect arbitration and the procedure would be laden with other dangers” like the danger of progress. All the parties suffered the same proximity talk panic-attacks.
The presidential mouthpiece Haravghi, meanwhile kept reassuring us that nothing would happen in New York, and all the doom and gloom merchants had been proved wrong. ‘Alarmism rejected’ read Tuesday banner headline, the paper quoting Stef-Stef as saying there were no traps, surprises or covert arbitration.
And on Wednesday the paper carried the triumphant headline - ‘There was no big step’ – thus silencing the alarmists. The comrade had once again been victorious, avoiding all Pascoe’s traps and heroically ensuring against anything positive being achieved in New York.
But the Greentree meeting was not the disappointment we were all praying for, according to our establishment’s information. We hate to be the bringer of bad tidings, but apparently Tof and Ero promised to return to the Big Apple in January with convergences on all issues, so that a date for the multi-party conference that would settle security and guarantees, would be set. If they failed to do so, which is entirely possible, Ban told them he would end the talks and close his good offices mission in Kyproulla. When this happens the church bells will be ringing, there will dancing in the streets and the comrade will return to a hero’s welcome, having once again proved the alarmists wrong.
According to informed sources close to the negotiations, both leaders gave assurances to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, during their meeting in New York last week that they were committed to producing the convergences he had asked for by the time they meet him next in January.
Significant differences nevertheless remain between the two sides, but Ban made it absolutely clear to them that his good offices mission will be terminated in the next few months if the sides do not break the deadlock.
The timeframe for a solution is June 2012. Until then there must be an agreement; the two sides must hold referenda and a federal Cyprus will assume the presidency of the Council of the EU.
If the deadlock is not broken by February, the UN will shut its good offices mission in Cyprus, the source said.
The option of freezing the talks until 2013 is unrealistic and it is something both leaders have fully understood. In fact, Christofias told Ban that he would not be a presidential candidate for a second term and has no plans to continue the talks in 2013. Once the UN team had made sure that the two sides had clearly understood the time constraint, Downer and Pascoe asked both sides if they believed they could bridge their differences. Both Christofias and Eroglu said they could.
The fact that they understood the time factor is perhaps the biggest achievement of the talks at Greentree. Talks without a timeframe and arbitration no longer constitute valid rhetoric. A very clear roadmap and a new procedure have emerged culminating in the endgame. If there is political will and courage, an agreement is possible.
Talks in Nicosia will start again on Thursday with one weekly meeting between the two leaders.
The leaders’ aides and working groups will take it from there while UN representatives together with their experts will be shuttling between the two sides, enriching discussions with their ideas and suggestions.
The UN has assured that they are not interested in imposing any solution, seeking especially to dispel the fears of the Greek Cypriots who vehemently oppose arbitration. As Downer said after briefing the Security Council, “we cannot want a solution more than the Cypriots themselves”, stressing that the role of the UN is to help the two sides reach a solution not to impose it. “They must be happy with the solution they will have reached”.
According to the new roadmap, the final round of talks in Cyprus will cover all chapters that are still open - governance, territory, property and citizenship.
A new tripartite meeting will be held in New York around January 15. Ban expects that the new meeting would be part of the final phase and not its beginning in the sense that when the leaders go to New York they would have already agreed on the four remaining chapters. If they go to the new meeting empty handed they would just be confirming the deadlock in the talks.
Sources said there is neither time nor inclination for another tripartite meeting. In New York there would only be two possibilities - declaring a deadlock or an agreement on the internal aspects and scheduling a multilateral meeting. If all goes as planned, the multilateral meeting will again be held in New York at the end of February or early March. If the talks reach the point of a multilateral meeting their success is a given, but if they collapse, it will happen in February. However, while a settlement is feasible on paper, it would have no value if it is not approved by both communities.
The UN believes that Christofias can count on the strong backing of the EU in case of a settlement, while Russia has given assurances that it will back a deal that is acceptable by both communities. Turkey is still willing, but less enthusiastic than before. Ban has already asked for support from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan while his envoy in Cyprus, Alexander Downer is planning a trip to Ankara. The United States will not get involved in the talks but have pledged to provide help backstage. The UN Secretary-general has the backing of the Security Council. Its President, José Filipe Moraes Cabral, said that both Ban’s and Downer’s efforts have the Council’s strong support. He added: “The Council agreed that the sides should make additional efforts and display the necessary political will to move forward and conclude the negotiations in a positive way.”
Ankara believes all options are open as far as the Cyprus problem is concerned and is preparing for all eventualities, an article in Politis says.
Ankara is satisfied with the New York talks and wants it all cleared up by July 2012 when Cyprus takes on the EU Presidency.
“We are optimistic, we hope that the talks on Cyprus will have a positive outcome” and that they will be able to reach a federal solution by January, a Turkish diplomatic source told the paper, although they are also concerned that the internal political situation in Cyprus might create complications.
If the problem is solved, Ankara predicts it will be followed by positive developments. First the road for Turkey’s entry into the EU will open, although it acknowledges that obstacles still remain and that Cyprus is just the excuse for keeping Turkey out. Secondly a solution will smooth out relations with Greece, and thirdly it will put an end to the crisis in the East Mediterranean over exploration for natural gas, as Turkey will stop its exploration efforts in Cyprus’ EEZ and will recognise the rights of a united Cyprus to exploit its natural resources.
However, if there is no solution, Ankara will harden its stance. It already has a plan B namely to turn the occupied part of the island into a kind of Taiwan, as it realises it doesn’t have much chance of getting the north recognised. Above all it will continue its exploration for natural gas and plans to drill in the same area as Noble Energy.
Another ‘thriller’ unfolded in New York last Monday, says the Cyprus Mail’s satirical column Coffeeshop, at least in the eyes of cliché-peddling newspaper headline writers, who are under the illusion they can sex-up a typically dull Cyprob story on their front page by labelling it a ‘thriller’. Let’s face it Cyprob talks are as exciting and suspenseful as a visit to the supermarket.
We seem to witness exactly the same thriller every time the two hillbilly leaders go to Big Apple for three-way handshakes and smiles with the normally poker-faced Ban Ki-moon.
In the run-up to the thriller, all the opposition parties predicted that there would be traps for the comrade – laid by Big Bad Al and his evil Yank backer, Lyn Pascoe, the pro-Turkish Under-Secretary-General, affectionately referred to as ‘an employee of the UN’ - who would be forced to participate in give-and-take, discuss UN bridging proposals, accept arbitration, an international conference and asphyxiating time-frames.
The comrade and his entourage meanwhile insist that nothing of the sort would happen, implying that the meeting would lead nowhere, in short, just another thriller without the thrills. This is the intergalactic scale of the lunacy that the Cyprob inspires. The government considers it a mega political success, a reason to gloat, when a meeting with Ban produces no results.
And the opposition parties, which had been ringing alarm bells about the danger of progress being made, forget about the traps and complain that Ban issued a statement that did not condemn the Turkish side’s intransigence. If, God forbid, Ban reported progress, they start to moan that he is covering up the intransigence and the comrade was to blame, for not taking a tougher stance.
Last week they were outraged about the change of the format of the talks when the UN decided to have proximity talks instead of direct talks with Ban. All our parties protested, fearing that the change of format could produce results, the last thing they wanted. DIKO warned that “there was a possibility proximity talks would lead to indirect arbitration and the procedure would be laden with other dangers” like the danger of progress. All the parties suffered the same proximity talk panic-attacks.
The presidential mouthpiece Haravghi, meanwhile kept reassuring us that nothing would happen in New York, and all the doom and gloom merchants had been proved wrong. ‘Alarmism rejected’ read Tuesday banner headline, the paper quoting Stef-Stef as saying there were no traps, surprises or covert arbitration.
And on Wednesday the paper carried the triumphant headline - ‘There was no big step’ – thus silencing the alarmists. The comrade had once again been victorious, avoiding all Pascoe’s traps and heroically ensuring against anything positive being achieved in New York.
But the Greentree meeting was not the disappointment we were all praying for, according to our establishment’s information. We hate to be the bringer of bad tidings, but apparently Tof and Ero promised to return to the Big Apple in January with convergences on all issues, so that a date for the multi-party conference that would settle security and guarantees, would be set. If they failed to do so, which is entirely possible, Ban told them he would end the talks and close his good offices mission in Kyproulla. When this happens the church bells will be ringing, there will dancing in the streets and the comrade will return to a hero’s welcome, having once again proved the alarmists wrong.
Wednesday, 2 November 2011
Ban calls for move to the endgame
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has urged the Cyprus leaders to move forward to the “endgame of negotiations” over the following two months, calling a new three-way summit for January.
“The sides have made some encouraging progress during these two days on some of the remaining core issues,” Ban said yesterday at the end of the talks on the Cyprus problem with the leaders of the two communities Demetris Christofias and Dervis Eroglu.
“This has given me confidence that a comprehensive settlement can be achieved. Both leaders have assured me that they believe that they can finalise a deal,” he added.
The leaders met Ban and senior UN officials in Long Island, New York on Sunday and Monday, the fourth such summit with the UN chief as part of ongoing reunification talks.
Despite the progress made, the UN chief acknowledged that “there is still work to be done”.
He said both leaders agreed that further efforts are essential over the next two months “to move to the end game of the negotiations”.
Ban said that by January he expects the internal aspects of the Cyprus problem to have been resolved “so that we can move to the multilateral conference shortly thereafter”.
Calling the two-day discussions “constructive and intensive”, Ban said considerable progress has been achieved in the areas of the economy, European Union matters and internal aspects of security.
“Much less progress was made in the important areas of governance, property, territory and citizenship,” he added.
President Christofias said yesterday no great progress was achieved during the meetings to allow for a turning point in the efforts for the solution of the Cyprus problem.
“Unfortunately, during the meeting it was not possible to make that great leap to allow for a turning point in the efforts to solve the Cyprus problem”. He said talks would henceforth focus on bridging the outstanding divergences between the two sides on the core issues.
“It will be tough, given the differences. Tough, but not unfeasible,” he noted.
“As long as the talks continue, we will show good will and we will be ready for a solution that will be agreed, be functional, based on principles and serve the best interests of all the people of Cyprus”, he underlined.
He also expressed the surprise the Greek Cypriot delegation had felt when on arrival in New York they discovered that proximity talks would be taking place, whereupon they lodged a complaint asking Ban to become personally and directly involved in the process.
The UN chief oversaw much of the discussion, Christofias said. He stressed that the UN did not engage in any mediation or arbitration attempts nor did it formulate bridging proposals.
Christofias said the Greek Cypriot side wanted a multilateral conference to be convened under UN auspices, with the participation of the five permanent members of the Security Council, the EU and the three guarantor powers.
But his reading of the UN chief’s statement was that such a conference would be held if the internal aspects of the Cyprus problem were first ironed out.
“Of course we want to come back here [in January]” he added. “Why are we conducting negotiations, after all? Is it to kill time?”
For his part, Eroglu appeared satisfied with Ban’s remarks, particularly the UN’s perceived intention to lead the talks into a final stage.
“After the January meeting, the staging of a conference would suggest we are coming to an end. As you know, from June next year south Cyprus will exercise the EU Presidency, and it will be hard to conduct negotiations during this time.”
In Nicosia, DIKO warned that it was clear the UN is working on a timetable to wrap up the talks, while main opposition party DISY called the outcome of the New York summit “disappointing.”
“It is clear that, without any substantive progress having been achieved, we are headed toward the conclusion of the negotiating process, with a very real danger of being faced with the dilemma of choosing between a collapse or a multilateral conference,” DISY leader Nikos Anastasiades said.
“The sides have made some encouraging progress during these two days on some of the remaining core issues,” Ban said yesterday at the end of the talks on the Cyprus problem with the leaders of the two communities Demetris Christofias and Dervis Eroglu.
“This has given me confidence that a comprehensive settlement can be achieved. Both leaders have assured me that they believe that they can finalise a deal,” he added.
The leaders met Ban and senior UN officials in Long Island, New York on Sunday and Monday, the fourth such summit with the UN chief as part of ongoing reunification talks.
Despite the progress made, the UN chief acknowledged that “there is still work to be done”.
He said both leaders agreed that further efforts are essential over the next two months “to move to the end game of the negotiations”.
Ban said that by January he expects the internal aspects of the Cyprus problem to have been resolved “so that we can move to the multilateral conference shortly thereafter”.
Calling the two-day discussions “constructive and intensive”, Ban said considerable progress has been achieved in the areas of the economy, European Union matters and internal aspects of security.
“Much less progress was made in the important areas of governance, property, territory and citizenship,” he added.
President Christofias said yesterday no great progress was achieved during the meetings to allow for a turning point in the efforts for the solution of the Cyprus problem.
“Unfortunately, during the meeting it was not possible to make that great leap to allow for a turning point in the efforts to solve the Cyprus problem”. He said talks would henceforth focus on bridging the outstanding divergences between the two sides on the core issues.
“It will be tough, given the differences. Tough, but not unfeasible,” he noted.
“As long as the talks continue, we will show good will and we will be ready for a solution that will be agreed, be functional, based on principles and serve the best interests of all the people of Cyprus”, he underlined.
He also expressed the surprise the Greek Cypriot delegation had felt when on arrival in New York they discovered that proximity talks would be taking place, whereupon they lodged a complaint asking Ban to become personally and directly involved in the process.
The UN chief oversaw much of the discussion, Christofias said. He stressed that the UN did not engage in any mediation or arbitration attempts nor did it formulate bridging proposals.
Christofias said the Greek Cypriot side wanted a multilateral conference to be convened under UN auspices, with the participation of the five permanent members of the Security Council, the EU and the three guarantor powers.
But his reading of the UN chief’s statement was that such a conference would be held if the internal aspects of the Cyprus problem were first ironed out.
“Of course we want to come back here [in January]” he added. “Why are we conducting negotiations, after all? Is it to kill time?”
For his part, Eroglu appeared satisfied with Ban’s remarks, particularly the UN’s perceived intention to lead the talks into a final stage.
“After the January meeting, the staging of a conference would suggest we are coming to an end. As you know, from June next year south Cyprus will exercise the EU Presidency, and it will be hard to conduct negotiations during this time.”
In Nicosia, DIKO warned that it was clear the UN is working on a timetable to wrap up the talks, while main opposition party DISY called the outcome of the New York summit “disappointing.”
“It is clear that, without any substantive progress having been achieved, we are headed toward the conclusion of the negotiating process, with a very real danger of being faced with the dilemma of choosing between a collapse or a multilateral conference,” DISY leader Nikos Anastasiades said.
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