Monday 29 November 2010

UN S-G report: both leaders have failed to deliver

A critical window of opportunity to resolve the Cyprus issue is rapidly closing while negotiations remain sluggish, frustratingly slow and disappointing, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has concluded in his report on his Good Offices Mission.

The 10-page report to the Security Council, released last week gives a rundown on what the UN expected from the leaders based on their commitment, and what they failed to deliver.

It also said the property differences were currently irreconcilable and urged the two leaders to come up with a convergence plan by the end of January when Ban will meet them in Geneva.

“I acknowledge that the question of property is arguably the most complex of the issues under negotiation, and recognise the efforts made by both sides to date to tackle the issue in a serious manner. However, despite close to six months of discussions on this crucial issue, my Special Adviser has reported a worrying lack of progress in efforts to agree on a conceptual framework on property. Basic differences exist between the two sides. For the time being these two positions are irreconcilable,” said Ban.

“We must be clear that to negotiate successfully a bizonal, bicommunal federation, the two leaders will have to reconcile these and other seemingly irreconcilable issues across all six chapters”, he said adding that the talks could not be an open-ended process.

“However, I fear a critical window of opportunity is rapidly closing. It is true that the leaders have met 88 times since the beginning of the full fledged negotiations and I commend them for this commitment. However, the true measure of the success of the negotiations will not be in how many times they have been able to meet, but by progress on finding mutually acceptable solutions to difficult issues. Talks for the sake of talks are ultimately not productive,” the Secretary-General said.

“The process so far has been characterised by periods of sluggish activity together with some flashes on dynamism ahead of important events. It is my concern that the political environment in the second quarter of 2011 will likely not be conducive to constructive negotiations,” he added, referring to Greek Cypriot parliamentary elections in May and Turkish elections in June. Ban said society intense political moments such as elections were rarely a time for compromises or flexibility.

“If substantive agreement across all chapters cannot be concluded ahead of the election cycle, the talks may go into abeyance and there is a serious risk that the negotiations could founder fatally,” he said.

“As such, both leaders must necessarily take responsibility for the course of the talks, for their success or their failure. No-one else can do this. Cypriot leadership means that it is the leaders who must propel the process forward and defend it against those who would seek to derail it.”

Referring to opinion polls, Ban said they indicates overwhelmingly low public expectations that a settlement could be reached, as well as distrust on both sides that, if a settlement were to be reached, the other side would have any serious intention of honouring it.

He said a solution therefore needed more than a comprehensive plan. It needed strong and determined leadership that will make the public case for a united Cyprus with all the benefits this brings.

Despite the collegial atmosphere in which the leaders engage in the talks, Ban said, the leaders’ subsequent public rhetoric had not conveyed that the negotiations were moving forward. Throughout the process, political leaders, both in government and opposition have accused the other side of undermining the talks, he said. Occasional outbursts by the leaders about each other had not contributed to building public confidence either, he said. It was up to them to reverse the current cycle of negative messages.

“I have been very disappointed to see a steady stream of untruthful and highly negative remarks about the United Nations reflected in the media. This criticism and misinformation about the UN is most unfortunate. Efforts by opponents of a solution to undermine the UN's credibility directly undermines the process itself.”

He said until now five Secretaries-General of the United Nations have dispatched good offices missions to the island to help facilitate peace negotiations and the international community had remained engaged in the Cyprus peace process due to the critical importance of its resolution for the island as well as the region “and there is a clear expectation that it will succeed”.

“While some progress has been made, it has been frustratingly slow. It is disappointing that, as we approach the end of the year, those expectations have not been met,” said Ban.

“The leaders of Cyprus are expected to make good on their commitment to that outcome. I also urge all regional actors to contribute positively, wherever they can, to help bring these negotiations to a rapid and successful conclusion. In the coming days and weeks, they will set the future course for the island and its citizens. It is their choice to make.”

Ban concludes with a list of recommendations and observations, including the leaders coming up with a practical plan to overcome the major remaining points of disagreement. They must also try to improve the public atmosphere and give out more constructive and harmonised messages to enhance public trust.

“I believe that parliamentarians and political actors on both sides should more consistently demonstrate their support for the negotiation process by allowing the two leaders adequate space to negotiate a potential settlement in good faith,” Ban added.

Finally he warned both sides that in the coming months he plans to conduct a broader assessment of the United Nations presence in Cyprus, with a view to recommend ways to adjust to ongoing developments.

The government responding to the UN S-G’s highlighted the positive elements of the report, referring to the fact that the Secretary-General had reaffirmed the basis of a Cyprus solution, which in essence ruled out strict timeframes and arbitration.

That UN Security Council resolutions were mentioned, along with the principle ‘nothing is agreed until everything is agreed’ were also a plus, Government Spokesman Stefanos Stefanou said, as was the idea to link all six chapters.

“There are some problematic references in the report regarding the role of political leaders and the media in creating a political climate which supports efforts for a solution,” he said.

Stefanou warned that those who engage in public rhetoric needed to consider what kind of messages they are giving out to the world and how others perceive them.

“Nevertheless, we feel that it would have been better to avoid these references in the SG’s report, just as public statements by his representatives should be avoided, which provoke other statements and reports, creating a vicious circle,” he added.

Coffeeshop refers to the scandalous report by the UN Secretary-General which set a suffocating time-frame for an agreement between the two sides and threatened a UN disengagement from the Cyprob after 47 years of unproductive work. All the parties and newspapers were furious with Ban Ki-Moon’s reference to the “steady stream of untruthful and highly negative remarks about the United Nations reflected in the media. The criticism and misinformation about the UN is most unfortunate.” They were livid that he spoke about the negative climate and opposition to a settlement cultivated by the political parties and media and called it an unacceptable case of interference in the internal affairs of the Cyprus Republic, as well as an official doubting of the Cyprus Republic and its institutions. It just makes you wonder why we insist on solving the Cyprob within the framework of an organization that is so hostile towards us. Isn’t there another, more favourable framework anywhere in the world within which not to solve the Cyprob? Maybe we should try the Islamic Conference or the Organisation of African Unity.

Tuesday 23 November 2010

Official contacts

President Demetris Christofias flew to Athens yesterday for a meeting with the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou today.

It was also announced that the Foreign Minister of Foreign, Markos Kyprianou, will visit London on 23 - 24 November in order to address the first meeting of the British All Party Parliamentary Group for Cyprus and brief British parliamentarians on the Cyprus issue. While in London he will meet with his British counterpart Mr William Hague.

Moreover, Bayrak reported that the Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu will be visiting Stockholm for contacts on 24 to 26 November.

The Greek Foreign Minister Mr Dimitris Droutsas speaking in Brussels yesterday proposed that an EU-Turkey Summit Meeting be held in late June or autumn next year, in order to adopt a political declaration that would set out a “new roadmap” for Turkish accession.

On the Cyprus issue Mr Droutsas underlined that if Turkey really wants to move ahead, it needs to meet all its obligations. “In the final analysis, we are talking about relations with a country – a reunified Cyprus – that will be a partner tomorrow, because it is obvious that as long as there are occupation troops on the island, Turkey cannot become a member. So I think that if the Protocol issue and the matter of Turkey’s other obligations have not been resolved by June, Turkey runs the danger that the accession process will be frozen until these situations are resolved. That is simply how it is, so there is no point in anyone hiding behind the Cyprus issue”.

Sunday 21 November 2010

Beginning of the end of the talks

Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis says that the UN is determined to clarify matters as far as the Cyprus problem is concerned and end of January is the deadline. He quotes a diplomatic source as saying that the New York meeting was the beginning of the end of the negotiating procedure and that it will either culminate in a solution or collapse. The January meeting will be the end of the line.

Depending on how things go, that meeting may possibly turn into a conference and it is no coincidence that Geneva was chosen as it is more suitable for hosting such a conference compared to New York.

He says the UN is fully satisfied with the way the meeting went and the fact that the leaders are as well gives the process a new impetus which, provided there are not setbacks, could very well lead to a positive outcome.

No attempt to negotiate any of the aspects of the Cyprus problem was made in New York or to put forward any gap-bridging proposals. The meeting concerned itself soley with procedure.

The UN S-G and his team told the leaders that the following:
- the problem can be solved. There are solutions that can satisfy the sensitivities of both sides. What is needed is the political will.

- He is not interested in acting as arbiter or imposing solutions. It is not the UN’s job to threaten to impose a solution that would not be acceptable to the people. It is their responsibility as leaders to prepare and persuade their people.

- The UN has experts who have worked and prepared useful material which they have put at the disposal of the leaders. It is up to them to make full use of it.

- The UN believes that the Cyprus problem cannot be discussed ad infinitum. All the issues have been discussed extensively. The deadlock cannot be broken by further discussions but by political decisions.

- Time is running out. The two communities are drifting further and further apart from a solution and any drawn out procedure will kill the prospects of agreement. If it is to be solved through negotiations, then it must be solved now. If not then there is no reason to carry this effort on.

-It is up to the leaders to find the way to make full use of the UN to bridge their differences and persuade their communities as to the benefits of a solution.

Both Christofias and Eroglu agreed with the UN S-G that the momentum has been lost, time is running out and this cannot continue without a result in the near future.

Christofias was better prepared according to the UN than Eroglu who relies a lot on his advisors and lacked the support that the physical presence of Turkey would have given him. Eroglu’s position was that the Cyprus problem should immediately be sent to a four party conference, whereas Christofias said his proposals should be accepted. The end result was a compromise between the two, whereby Christofias wish was satisfied that all open chapters would be discussed and Eroglu’s wish for a deadline was also satisfied albeit postponed by a month.

The most important outcome of the meeting was the fact that bothe leaders agreed with the UN to draw up a road map consisting of cross chapter negotiation of the areas still pending, namely territory, property, security and government. Most of this work will be carried out by the advisors with the help of the UN.

The UN believes that if the political support exists on the part of the leaders and they abandon the delaying tactics of the last six months then progress will be rapid.

The plan is that the endgame will come in January. Christofias and Eroglu have committed to following the UN road map, which describes the procedure from now until then. They made this commitment in public via Ban Ki-Moon’s statement in their presence.

Politis says that in the next few days the UN S-G will submit his report to the UN Security Council in which he will record what was agreed between Christofias and Talat in order not to allow chapters that have closed to be reopened again.

The report will also record the commitments that the two leaders have undertaken as described by Ban Ki-Moon. Provided that the report is an objective outline of facts and the road map is approved by the leaders, it is expected that the Security Council will approve it. Any attempt to block it will be seen as an attempt to renege from what has been agreed.

Alexander Downer will, in the next few weeks, Alexander Downer is expected to draw up the ‘practical action plan’ which will form the road map. If the leaders stick to what they agreed then the convergences that the UN S-G wants will be found in all the chapters and the Geneva meeting will justifiably be upgraded. If, however, any or both of the leaders start playing the blame game and are inflexible, then this will be recorded every step of the way. If the talks end in deadlock then the UN S-G will withdraw his good offices and will clearly state in his next report why his effort failed and each side will have to shoulder the responsibility it deserves.

The Sunday Mail’s satirical column, Coffeeshop says you had to laugh seeing the tv footage of the glum-looking mukhtars of the two communities standing either side of Ban Ki-moon, staring into the void, as he read his statement straight after the meeting at UN headquarters.
They looked like two naughty schoolboys being told off in front of the classroom by the benevolent headmaster whose patience was at breaking point, but was giving them one last chance to mend their ways.
He put them on probation until the end of January, but if their behaviour does not improve drastically by then he will expel both them and their problem from the UN for good. They will no longer be allowed to take the piss out of everyone as they have been given more than enough time to cut out the monkey business and get serious.
Will they heed this final warning and take some responsibility as their long-suffering headmaster urged them to do, or will they carry on misbehaving and insisting that the other boy is to blame for messing about in the classroom?
Both looked pretty miserable and dispirited while listening to the public reprimand, but I am certain that they will get over it once they are back in the sun and dust of their separate playgrounds in Kyproulla, where they can be as naughty as they like.

Despite the public bollocking, which must have been preceded by a much worse one at the private meeting, the comrade was in defiant mood. He called newsmen and showed off his talent for Stalinist propaganda, by informing them that he was “very satisfied with the outcome of the meeting”.
None of the scare stories circulating in Cyprus ahead of the meeting proved correct, he triumphantly announced, implying that our great leader had saved us. “There are no time-frames, there are no threats from anywhere and the Secretary-General has no intention whatsoever of applying pressure.”
Apart from forcing the two sides to stop the delaying tactics, stop the blame-game and intensify their contacts, there was indeed no pressure. And there was certainly no time-frame, apart from the end of January deadline for progress. And there were certainly no threats apart from Ban threatening to end his good offices mission if significant progress was not reported by the end of January - which was not a time-frame - when he arranged to meet the two leaders again.
Under the circumstances, we should congratulate the comrade for achieving all his objectives at the meeting and adding one he forgot to mention – no change to the procedure, apart from intensifying the meetings and Big Bad Al submitting convergence proposals.

Friday 19 November 2010

People of Cyprus and international community want a solution, not endless talks, says Ban

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon yesterday urged the leaders of the two communities in Cyprus to pick up the pace in the Cyprus peace process.

In a brief statement after a he met with Christofias and Eroglu at UN headquarters in New York yesterday, Ban said he had invited the leaders to meet with him because the talks on Cyprus were losing momentum and needed a boost if the two sides are to reach a settlement while there is still the time and the political opportunity to do so”.

“Only the leaders can give the talks a boost,” he added. “The United Nations can support them, as we have been doing through the work of my Special Adviser and his team. But only the leaders can arrive at a solution”.

He said that when he visited the island earlier this year, he could feel the hope and expectation among people on both sides for a settlement that would finally reunify Cyprus and real progress was being made in the talks.

The UN chief added that “that sense of anticipation has faded, however, as talks continued throughout the remainder of the year without clear progress or a clear end in sight” but added that the message of urgency was driven home to both sides.

He said he had made it clear to both leaders that the UN respects these talks as a Cypriot-led process and that it is precisely for that reason that they expect the Cypriot sides to assume their responsibility to drive this process toward a solution.

“The people of Cyprus and the international community want a solution, not endless talks”, he stressed. “I believe the leaders understand this. I hope today’s meeting has helped restore momentum,” he said.

He said that both leaders told him they recognize the need to move more quickly and decisively in order to reach a settlement.

Noting that serious differences remained between the two sides, the UN chief said the leaders expressed their commitment to work together, as partners, toward that goal. They had agreed to intensify their contacts in the coming weeks, and the three would meet again in Geneva in late January.

“In the meantime, the leaders will identify further convergences and the core issues which still need to be resolved, across all chapters. That, in turn, will help the United Nations determine its own next steps”, he said.

The UN chief also said that projecting positive messages is critical if any agreement is to be trusted and embraced by the respective publics in referenda.

Neither Ban nor the two leaders took questions afterwards. The Secretary-General explaining that this was due to “the sensitive nature of the discussions.”

The talks were preceded by a working lunch hosted by Ban for the two leaders.
The three men then took time to join hands in a three-way handshake during a photo-op before getting down to business.

Attending the meeting, in addition to the leaders, were George Iacovou, Eroglu’s advisor Kudret Özersay, Downer and the UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Lynn Pascoe. Christofias’ party to New York also included expert on constitutional law Toumazos Tselepis.

Before the meal, Eroglu was quoted by Anadolu news agency saying he expected the Secretary-General to ask the leaders for their thoughts on how to break the deadlock on some of the negotiating chapters.
Asked whether he was optimistic, the Turkish Cypriot leader offered the perfunctory answer: “Certainly, every meeting provides hope, and that is why we are coming to this meeting with good will.”

Reports said UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer, also in New York for the meeting, will today have a follow-up meeting there with Christofias and Eroglu. Downer and the two leaders are also set to meet again back in Cyprus next week.

According to the CyBC’s New York correspondent, the agenda of yesterday’s meeting was fixed only at the eleventh hour, despite Downer having told newsmen on Wednesday the meeting held no surprises in store and that the two leaders would be “happy” with the format.

The meeting came days before Ban is due to submit to the Security Council a progress report on the talks and whose conclusions both sides are eagerly awaiting. Ban said yesterday his report would be “fair and frank”.

Reports from New York suggested the Secretary-General was considering another progress review in February of 2011.

Though the UN has said no deadline for a settlement exists, it has also stressed that the talks cannot be allowed to drag on forever.

President Christofias left New York yesterday saying he was very satisfied with the results of the meeting between him, Eroglu and the UN S-G.

“I came to New York after having been bombarded with a load of conjecture and catastrophic speculations. I am leaving New York very satisfied with the results of this meeting”, he stressed.

“None of the speculation was founded. There are no timeframes, there is no threat by anybody and there is no intention by the Secretary General to exert pressure. His press release is crystal clear, at least in my evaluation and the way I interpret it. I return to Cyprus satisfied” , added.

He stressed: “We want a solution to the Cyprus problem; we do not want talks for the sake of talks. This is well known. And we will do whatever is possible in order to break the deadlock. I hope that we will succeed.”

According to the Turkish press, in statements after the meeting Dervis Eroglu said they will continue the negotiations with good will.

He added: “It was a useful meeting. The negotiations will continue in an intensified manner. The UN Secretary-General will show in January whether he will continue his good offices mission”.

Eroglu said that six chapters exist in the negotiations and that there are some deadlocks today. He said they had discussed what efforts they could exert to overcome these deadlocks and that they had decided to evaluate the situation during the meeting in Geneva.

Thursday 18 November 2010

New York meeting underway

The leaders of the two communities Demetris Christofias and Dervis Eroglu are currently in New York meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon.

According to CyBC’s New York correspondent, the meeting started at 1pm local time (8pm in Cyprus) with a working lunch attended by five representatives of each community, lasting 90 minutes. After a half hour break, the tripartite meeting will start with each leader bringing four aides to the table.

The meeting is expected to last two hours at the end of which the Secretary-General will make a statement, the contents of which will have been agreed upon by the leaders.

According to UN sources, the statement will include a reference to the nature of the talks, what has been achieved so far and the steps that will follow.

The two leaders were called to New York based on the UN’s assessment that talks on the property issue need a push forward if any progress is to be made in the negotiations.

Ban, through his Good Offices team in Cyprus, is due to issue a progress report on the talks this month. The outcome of today’s meeting will play a significant role in the conclusions of that report.

Before leaving for New York, Christofias told Greek Cypriots that he was not going there to make concessions while Eroglu was quoted in the Turkish Cypriot press saying that the two leaders had reached “deadlock” on the property issue.
The Turkish Cypriot leader said Ban likely called the meeting before the report is due to hear objectively the thoughts of both sides and to try to overcome the deadlock.

The Cyprus Mail reports that British High Commissioner in Nicosia, Matthew Kidd, yesterday described the tripartite meeting as “important”, noting that “both sides have made concessions and offers and have come up with ideas, particularly in the past few weeks in the area of property”.

Kidd highlighted that reaching a solution required concessions from both sides.
He said British Prime Minister David Cameron had spoken on the phone with Christofias yesterday morning. Christofias “will be able to expect support from the UK and the Prime Minister for anything that he does to try to move us courageously towards an agreement,” he added.
Acting government spokesman Christos Christophides said yesterday that the Greek Cypriot side was going to the meeting “very well-prepared”.

He said Christofias’ package of proposals on the talks, regarding linking various chapters, returning Varosha, opening Famagusta port and calling an international conference, offered a way out for various issues on the Cyprus problem.
Christophides maintained that “these proposals are gaining ground internationally”.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s chief EU negotiator, Egemen Bagis, raised eyebrows when he suggested the Cyprus problem be solved “in the way that the Pope gets elected”. He proposed that all the players in the Cyprus problem lock themselves up in a room with the UN S-G and Security Council until the problem is solved.
Speaking to Turkish reporters in Athens on Tuesday, Bagis criticised Christofias for his pre-meeting build up.

“The world is not made up of the 59 seats in the parliament of south Cyprus,” he said, adding that there was a bigger world which “has had enough of the rejection of every proposal”.

“Where in the world does a leader on his way to New York for UN talks, after an appeal by the opposition, feel the need to promise that he won’t make many concessions?” he asked.

The Turkish minister added: “Turkey is ready for a solution but we are also ready for tension. We are ready for everything.”

Moreover, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus, Mr Alexander Downer, speaking after separate meetings in New York with both Christofias and Eroglu, said “The Secretary General has a plan for how he wants the meeting to go and I don’t think there will be any problem for the two leaders. They will be happy about it”.

He added that he hoped the meeting would be productive because the negotiations “have lost momentum and we want them to see if this will help to give them a bit of new momentum”.

Tuesday 16 November 2010

Cyprus endgame

The Acting Deputy Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General Farhan Haq announced yesterday that the UN Secretary-General will host the two Cypriot leaders in a working lunch on Thursday, 18 November, followed by a meeting in the afternoon.

An editorial in the Financial Times says that Sir David Hannay, an eminent British diplomat, once observed that no one had ever lost money betting against a successful outcome of negotiations to solve the Cyprus problem. As a former UK special representative for Cyprus, he knew whereof he spoke. The latest United Nations-sponsored talks, which started in 2008, have not even come close to ending the division of Cyprus, now in its 37th year. But the process is approaching a T-junction at which it will no longer be possible to avoid choosing between a settlement and the island’s permanent partition.

If, as seems entirely likely, the discussions in New York this week lead nowhere, the UN may withdraw from its good offices mission, raising the prospect of formal partition.

A two-state solution is not an ideal outcome. It would impose grave costs on the Greek Cypriots in terms of maintaining high levels of military expenditure to counter the perceived Turkish threat. In the short term, it would deal yet another blow to Turkey’s prospects of joining the European Union.

But to varying degrees each Cypriot community has only itself to blame. For too long, Greek Cypriots have mouthed platitudes in support of reunifying Cyprus, while never taking the politically difficult decisions needed for a breakthrough. The Turkish Cypriots did at least vote in favour of a settlement in 2004. But Mr Eroglu has long favoured a two-state solution – as did Rauf Denktash, the Turkish Cypriot leader from 1983 to 2005. As Alexander Downer, the UN envoy for Cyprus, put it earlier this year: “It’s easy to sound in favour of a solution ... You can train a parrot in a pet shop to say that.”

If the Turkish Cypriots asked for recognition of their state, it would be difficult for the UK to oblige, because London is bound by a 1960 treaty of guarantee not to promote partition. Other EU countries would also hesitate. But many states are impatient with the constant Greek Cypriot disruption of EU business on account of the Cyprus dispute. They believe Turkey’s rising geopolitical and economic importance makes it imperative to show Ankara that the EU will not be hostage to the Greek Cypriots for ever. Even Russia, a long-time friend of the Greek Cypriots, is signalling a possible change of course on account of its newly blossoming ties with Turkey. The isolation of the Turkish Cypriots may therefore not last much longer – a point the Greek Cypriots should bear in mind before letting the UN talks fail.

A former US ambassador to Greece in a letter to the FT says that the EU effectively lost its leverage on Cyprus in 2004 when it allowed itself to be blackmailed by Greece, which threatened to block the admission of the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta, unless Cyprus was admitted too.

He said that while he was serving in Greece in 1995, he had worked with the French EU presidency to devise a formula whereby Cyprus Cyprus’ admission to the EU would come only after a settlement had been reached. In other words, the EU would admit a Cyprus settlement, not the Cyprus problem.

In giving in to Greece’s blackmail, he said, the EU effectively threw away its leverage and ensured that a Cyprus settlement would probably never be reached. It also, in effect, rewarded the Papadopoulos government for having killed the Annan Plan, which was the best hope for a solution to the Cyprus problem.

Sunday 14 November 2010

Plan B will be decided in New York

Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis says that the New York meeting is giving Cyprus yet another chance to use the EU in order to reach a dynamic solution. It is an opportunity to unblock the talks and to put all Plan Bs on the shelf. If it fails then alternative ways will be sought to push Turkey’s accession while partition will acquire its own dynamic so much so that establishing a single state in Cyprus will finally become unfeasible.

The Cyprus Mail’s editorial today says that alarm-mongers and conspiracy theorists have been working at full capacity ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the two leaders with the UN Secretary-General. Nothing for them is too far-fetched or outlandish, as they spin tales about traps, dirty tricks, hidden agendas and ultimatums being planned by Ban Ki-moon and his associates. Some have identified the danger of asphyxiating time-frames and arbitration being imposed while others fear there will be an attempt to change the talks’ procedure.

This was why President Christofias, who grudgingly accepted the invitation to New York, sought assurances from Special Envoy Alexander Downer about the agenda of the meeting. Once these assurances were given, he would have included them in a letter to Ban to ensure there were no changes to the meeting’s agenda. This move was unanimously approved by all the party leaders at their meeting with Christofias last Tuesday. Interestingly, the only way to achieve unanimity among party leaders and political unity is by taking a totally negative stance.

All agreed that there should be no change in the talks’ procedure, no suffocating time-frames no change in the role of the UN, and that an international conference and arbitration should be avoided at all costs. Christofias also received assurances that no joint communiqué would be issued by the UN. And although he agreed to a review of the talks so far being carried out, he demanded that nothing was put in writing. Downer, reportedly, also reassured Christofias that he would not be put under any pressure by Ban.

The question is why has Christofias agreed to go to New York? If his conditions are met, nothing will be achieved at the meeting. If we have ruled out proposals for bridging differences by the UN and the change of the procedure, how will the impasse reached in the talks on property be overcome? If we have ruled out an international conference that would bring Turkey into the process, then we are ensuring against a breakthrough? On the one hand Christofias insists that Ankara holds the key to a solution, but on the other he has dogmatically resisted all attempts to involve Ankara directly in the talks, the ownership of which, he says, must remain Cypriot.

We can only deduce that Christofias is perfectly content with the talks dragging on indefinitely. This is why he does not want the UN to play a more active role in the procedure, a position supported by the hard-line party leaders who are opposed to the settlement that could be achieved. The impression given is that we would be happy to carry on talking inconclusively for another two years. Turkey would have no objection either, as long as the chapters in the accession negotiations with the EU were unblocked, which is their primary concern.

Given this negativity and the UN’s assurances that no pressure will be applied what is the purpose of the meeting? The most likely scenario is that Ban will tell the two leaders that he respected their desire to maintain the Cypriot ownership of the talks, but that the UN wanted results in order to carry on its good offices mission. He might give them a reasonable deadline for reaching agreement on the property issue (a couple of months at most), after which, if they fail, the UN would wind up its mission in Cyprus and issue a report on the reasons for its failure.

It would be a perfectly reasonable position for Ban to take, as the talks have been going on for more than two years without coming anywhere near an agreement. All things must come to an end at some point and nobody outside the island can accuse the UN of giving up on the Cyprus problem unjustifiably. The organisation has been trying to broker an agreement for more than 40 years now. The time has come for the UN to concede defeat, pack up and go home and leave the two sides to reach an agreement on their own.

There would be no pressure, no time-frames, no change of procedure, no arbitration and no joint communiqué, and all the UN’s detractors could sleep easy as they would never again have to worry about traps, hidden agendas and conspiracies aimed at a speedy closure of the Cyprus problem. Christofias has avoided taking any tough decisions on the Cyprus problem for close to two and a half years now, but in New York on Thursday he will, most probably, be forced to make a choice. Carrying on talking inconclusively would not be a choice.

Politis reports that the Economist Intelligence Unit in a recent report says there’s a 20% chance for a solution to the Cyprus problem being found by 2015. It says the climate can only change if there are significant convergences on property. If nothing comes out of the New York meeting, the next talks will be for agreed partition. In such an eventuality the property issue will be discussed without there being a need to discuss the sharing of power. Nevertheless it points to the difficulty of negotiating such a solution and the acceptance of partition.

Tuesday 9 November 2010

Cyprus could slide towards partition

An article in the Financial Times says that Cyprus might slide towards formal partition if a make-or-break meeting of Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders at the UN this month fails to find a solution, diplomats fear.

Officials in the UN and leading western governments have warned that there is a limit to how long they will back the negotiations, saying they are running out of patience with the inability of both sides to strike a deal.

“If we don’t get agreement now . . . then it really is ‘goodnight, nurse’ ”, a leading diplomat involved in negotiations told the Financial Times.

“There’s a chance the UN will withdraw its good offices in hosting the talks. We’re not going to stay here for ever, going through mindless meetings and meaningless talks.”

Another senior diplomat from a European Union nation warned that the peace talks ran the risk of failing completely. “This meeting is the last chance for a solution because progress so far has been pitiful,” the diplomat said. “We’re approaching the point where it’s time to face up to the painful consequences of failure.” The Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders have held almost 90 face-to-face negotiating sessions in the drive for a settlement.

The paper says discussions have stalled because the Greek Cypriots are demanding extra territory on the island before they agree to abandon their historic rights to property that is on the Turkish side.

The pace of talks has also slowed since Dervis Eroglu was elected Turkish Cypriot president last April, replacing Mehmet Ali Talat.

Critics of Demetris Christofias said the Greek Cypriots were using filibustering tactics. “The Greek Cypriot leadership pulls back when advisers are close to agreeing,” said one person with knowledge of the talks.

The senior EU diplomat said failure to strike a deal this year would bring a real risk that Cyprus would move to formal partition. While the Greek part of the island is an internationally recognised state and member of the EU, the TRNC is formally recognised only by Turkey. “If there is no significant progress by the end of 2010, it will have disastrous consequences and Cyprus could be permanently divided in 2011,” the diplomat said.

“Withdrawal of the UN good offices after a failed peace process means that a non-negotiated partition becomes a real possibility and Turkey would likely push for wider recognition of the TRNC.”

According to the diplomat, the TRNC’s prospects of being recognised as an independent state have increased after an International Court of Justice ruling that Kosovo’s declaration of independence did not violate international law. “Partition will damage Cyprus economically, politically and culturally,” the diplomat told the FT.

“It will also threaten broader regional instability because it will mean Turkey and Greece have to spend more militarily on preserving the formal border across the island.”

Diplomats said the Greek Cypriots wanted all their property in the north of the island – comprising 75 per cent of total property in the TRNC – reinstated. The Turkish Cypriots want to keep the property and pay the Greek Cypriots compensation instead. “Both sides have started to come together on some aspects of the negotiation but haven’t reached sufficient convergence,” a UN official said.

Mr Eroglu wants to reach agreement on property before moving on to other areas. The sensitivity of the issue was confirmed last week when Turkish and Turkish Cypriot politicians met to discuss how to finance any compensation for Greek Cypriot owners.

Leaked reports of the session, attended by a Turkish bank chief executive, sparked a furore. “If things carry on as they are then it’s just negotiations for the sake of negotiations,” said a Turkish Cypriot official, adding that the New York meeting could produce simply an “X-ray photo” of the stalemate or a “prescription to break the deadlock”.

It is time for the UK government to “consider the formal partition of Cyprus” if the current round of UN-backed reunification talks fail, former British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw wrote in The Times yesterday.

His statements came ahead of next week’s meeting between President Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in New York, and a visit by the Turkish President Abdullah Gul to the UK yesterday to collect this year’s Chatham House Prize from the Queen.

Speaking of the New York meeting, which comes after more than two years of negotiations, Straw said, “We should pray for success,” but added that “the chances of a settlement would be greatly enhanced if the international community broke a taboo, and started publicly to recognise that if political equality cannot be achieved within one state, then it could with two states - north and south”.

Straw’s comments, he said, stem not from a belief that Cyprus would be better off divided, but from his frustration at the EU’s, and in particular Cyprus and France’s, opposition to Turkey’s long-awaited accession to the bloc.

While France and Cyprus share the burden of blocking Turkey’s accession hopes, Straw says France has been able to use the “convenient excuse of Cyprus” to hide the “naked truth” that it opposed Turkish accession because it is a predominantly Muslim country. The UK, on the other hand, has always supported Turkish accession to the EU.

Straw urged the international community to see both sides of the story surrounding the Cyprus dispute.

“There are two stories: one of the ‘unjustifiable’ Turkish invasion; the other of such ‘violent oppression’ by the Greek majority of the minority that Turkish protection was (and is) vital. Both sets of stories have truths, but because Greek Cyprus was admitted to the EU before any settlement of the island’s future it is their truths which dominate EU decisions on Turkey,” he wrote.

Speaking to the BBC’s Radio Four Today Programme yesterday morning Straw said that if next week’s talks failed, a “default position” was needed to prevent Turkey’s accession process from being totally scuppered.

“Greek Cypriot Cyprus is using what is a relatively tiny dispute to try to stop Turkey coming into the EU,” and warned: “If we carry on locking Turkey’s accession negotiations we will push Turkey towards Iran and the [Arab] south.”
Alternatively, Straw said, Europe should “embrace the advance” of a Turkey that was “becoming an advanced industrialised country”.

“If we reject it, we will pay the price.”

Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu has told UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon that a solution can be found by the end of the year if the Greek Cypriots stop wasting time.

According to Turkish Cypriot press reports, in a letter dated November 1, Eroglu states that progress and agreement can be reached by the end of the year “if the Greek Cypriot side takes progressive steps and shows the necessary political will”.

He was quoted saying: “If the Greek Cypriot side stops making unnecessary statements and starts putting its energy into the negotiations on the Cyprus problem, then a comprehensive solution may be found by the end of the year.”

The Turkish side continues to engage in negotiations with good will and has accepted peace plans, said Eroglu, adding that the upcoming tripartite meeting between Ban and the two leaders on November 18 would have a positive impact on the talks.

The United Nations yesterday highlighted the importance of a New York meeting on the Cyprus problem next week as President Christofias said his aim was to break potential deadlocks and pave the way for a comprehensive solution, the Cyprus Mail reports.

“It’s an important meeting in the process, it’s not just a run-of-the-mill meeting; it’s going to be particularly important,” UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer said yesterday, following a meeting between Christofias and Eroglu.

Downer said the UN has already started working on their report that will be completed after the leaders’ meeting.

“We’ll obviously update it to take into consideration what’s happened in that meeting; in other words, to put it in a simpler way, it won’t be completed until the meeting has taken place,” Downer said.

The Australian diplomat also sought to clear the air concerning the UN role in the negotiations.

“There is a sort of presumption that the United Nations is anxious to force something upon people; it’s not our objective to force something upon people. It is the objective of the leaders in Cyprus to achieve a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political equality and single sovereignty as articulated in Security Council resolutions,” Downer said.

He stressed that nothing could be forced on the people of Cyprus as ultimately they would have to endorse any agreement.

“Suggestions that we can come here and force something on them, and that the people will be forced to vote yes in referendums is fanciful; that is not possible,” he said.

Asked about the New York meeting, Christofias said he aimed to defend the principles and, as far as possible, break potential deadlocks and open the way for a comprehensive solution.

“This is the aim. I do not aim to go to New York to determine a deadlock and then full stop, nothing further. We want the talks to continue in a creative way and this will become evident in due course,” Christofias said.

After the meeting, Eroglu said the main subject at the New York meeting would be the slow progress on the property issue.

The Turkish Cypriot leader declined to comment on reports that if there are no convergences in New York then division in Cyprus would become permanent.

Wednesday 3 November 2010

Compensation for Greek Cypriot properties to be speeded up - Turkish Cypriot owners may be asked to contribute

A decision was taken in Ankara yesterday to speed up the process of making the Greek Cypriot properties in the north, with Ankara also possibly calling on Turkish Cypriots living in such Greek Cypriot properties to pay up to a third of the financial costs of compensation claims,

The Cyprus Mail says that these ideas were among those put forward at a top-level meeting on the Cyprus property issue in Ankara on Monday between a delegation made up of the whole Turkish Cypriot leadership, including leader Dervish Eroglu and his prime minister Irsen Kucuk, with Turkish President Abdullah Gul.

Coming just days after the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ordered Turkey to pay over €15 million in compensation to 19 Greek Cypriot refugees forced off their properties during the Turkish invasion in 1974, the meeting indicates that Turkey may call on Turkish Cypriots to play a greater financial role in ongoing legal settlements.

So far, they have not been called on to do so. Nor have they been asked by Turkey to contribute to the STG £46.8 million worth of settlements that have been reached through the Immovable Properties Commission (IPC) in the north.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an attendee at the Ankara meeting stressed that the meeting had been “a brainstorming session” during which “many ideas for raising funds” had been exchanged.

The source added, however, that if Turkish Cypriots were called on to contribute, the process would be done “fairly”, and through the mechanism of the IPC, the body set up in 1996 to handle the claims of Greek Cypriots who wish to either return to, exchange or sell their properties in the Turkish-controlled north.

How to deal with Turks and other foreigners who had either purchased property or been given it free was also discussed, along with “alternative ways of raising funds” to pay compensation bills.

It was reported in some newspapers in the north yesterday that the Ankara meeting had also been attended by Turkish bankers and industrialists in an attempt to find creative ways of raising capital.

Reacting yesterday to rumours emerging from Monday’s meeting, Turkish Cypriot daily Havadis said Turkey was “feeling the pinch” of Greek Cypriot property claims and was now telling Turkish Cypriots to “put your hands in your pockets”.

Peace Institute of Oslo (PRIO) researcher Ayla Gurel, who has studied the Cyprus property issue in detail, warned yesterday that a move that involved asking Turkish Cypriots using Greek Cypriot properties to pay even part of the compensation bill would “constitute a complete invalidation of the current property regime” in the north.

“The government gave them title deeds, and now they are asking them to buy another one,” she said, referring to ‘title deeds’ given to Turkish Cypriot refugees from the south.

“One way or another these people have already paid for the properties, at least in theory,” she said.

These same could be said of foreigners who have bought properties, she added.
“They bought properties in a country where the government told them it would be the guarantor of the title deeds. Are they going to tell them now they have to pay 30,000 pounds more?” Such a move, Gurel said, “would not be politically easy” and “could even bring down the government”.

Turkish daily Hurriyet reports that a ‘historic’ decision was taken at the Ankara meeting to speed up the process of making the Greek Cypriot properties in the north Turkish.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul asked for the Greek Cypriot properties to be “turkified speedily through the efficient functioning of the Property Compensation Commission established on the island”.

The paper says that Gul gave instructions to Ersin Ozince, President of the Union of Banks and General Director of Is Bankasi, whom he invited to the summit, to establish a committee and work towards granting credit for the “properties which have been cleared” with respect to the international law.
Citing information acquired by high ranking officials who participated in the Cyprus meeting, Bilge reports that President Gul described the “Property Compensation Commission” as “very important” and said that it should function efficiently and take decisions more quickly. The sides, which stressed that the land in the TRNC is among the most valuable in the Mediterranean Sea, asked Ersin Ozince to prepare proposals so that the properties, which belonged to Greek Cypriots before 1974 be harmonized with international law, and are evaluated using modern financing techniques. Ersin Ozince said that he would establish a special committee the soonest.

Turkish Cypriot daily Kibris reports that Turkey has pressed the button to guarantee bi-zonality in a possible solution to be found to the Cyprus problem and to turn the occupied Greek Cypriot properties into Turkish properties “in a manner which is in harmony with the international law”.

The paper writes that developments are expected which will make anyone who received Greek Cypriot property in the north without having any property in the south but took occupied to “lose sleep”.

According to a reliable source who participated in the Ankara meeting, the following method is under consideration. When a Greek Cypriot files an application for compensation of his property in the occupied areas of the island, a research will be held regarding the value of the property left in the free areas of Cyprus by the person who is currently using the Greek Cypriot property. The difference in the value of the properties will be met with a credit granted by Turkey’s Is Bankasi or by another bank.

The person who lives in the Greek Cypriot property will be responsible for paying at least half the difference between the two properties. According to the paper, those who have taken a lot of occupied Greek Cypriot property without having property in the free areas of the Republic “will lose their sleep”.

After the necessary compensation is paid by the bank to the Greek Cypriot who has applied to the “Property Compensation Commission”, a bargain will be held with the user of the property. The paper gives the following example: If the value of a property is 10 million Euros, the user of the property will be asked to pay around five million Euros or sell the property. All efforts will be exerted so that the Greek Cypriots who apply to the Property Compensation Commission to accept compensation.

The source said that they expect a boom in the number of Greek Cypriot applications. The paper writes that if Greek Cypriots apply to the “Commission”, efforts will be exerted for a quick solution of the problem regarding their property. It notes that bureaucratic obstacles will be eliminated and all measures will be taken in the direction of creating “as many Turkish properties as possible”.

Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders on Monday decided to establish a committee that would look into opening more crossings between the island’s divided communities as the United Nations are pushing for more momentum in the Cyprus problem negotiations, the Cyprus Mail reported.

“That joint committee will no doubt be put together fairly soon,” UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer said after a meeting between President Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu.

Christofias and Eroglu also exchanged views on their forthcoming meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in New York on November 18 and the issue of property, Downer said.

The UN official said details of the meeting’s agenda have not yet been finalised but “no doubt the Secretary-General will want to talk to the leaders, inter-alia, about the property question, but I am sure he will want to talk more broadly about the whole process.

“We still have two and a half weeks to go until the meeting takes place, so all of that will be worked out much nearer the time,” Downer said.

The Australian diplomat said the New York meeting is important as the UN try to inject momentum in the talks.

“There obviously has been some slowing of the momentum in recent times, and the Secretary-General has taken the initiative of calling the leaders about that, and he thought it best to invite them to New York,” Downer said. “And I think this is an important part of the overall engagement by the United Nations with the leaders.”

Downer said the two leaders will meet again next Monday. Their representatives will meet on Wednesday and possibly on Friday.

Monday 1 November 2010

Leaders to meet with UN S-G in New York

The leaders of the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities will be meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon on November 18 in New York, within the framework of ongoing talks to resolve the Cyprus problem, the UN announced yesterday.

According to reports in the press, the meeting is an effort to help resolve the property issue by the end of the year.

A UN progress report is expected by the end of November.

Ban had previously telephoned the two leaders to express his concern at the slow pace of the talks and urged them to make concrete progress.

Yesterday, President Christofias said he will request that the discussion move onto territory.

“Because I see that we could be led to a possible deadlock on property, I will ask once more, and repeat with emphasis, that there is a need to move on to discussion of territory, which is directly related with the property issue,” Christofias said. “If we find common language on territory, by widening the area under Greek Cypriot administration the issue of property will be discussed more easily.”

The basic position of the Greek Cypriot side is that the legal owners of the properties in the north should have first choice – in case of a solution – to decide if they want restitution, exchange or compensation.

The Turkish Cypriot side proposes that the final decision for every property should be made by a property commission based on criteria, which, Greek Cypriots say, will essentially preclude – except in rare cases -- restoration of the property rights of the lawful owners.2. Eroglu discusses property issue with Gul in Ankara Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu travelled to Ankara yesterday for talks with Turkish President Abdullah Gul on the property issue.

Turkish Cypriot daily Kibris reports that the purpose of the meeting was to discuss the property issue, as well the areas to be returned to the Greek Cypriots and the compensation of the properties which will remain in the north. Kibrisli reports that the meeting in Ankara will determine “the next steps” the Turkish side will take and Eroglu’s tactics during the forthcoming meeting in New York with Christofias and the UN Secretary-General, as well as the issues of property, Varosha, the opening of the occupied port of Famagusta and the privatization of the illegal Tymvou airport.

Kibris reports that developments are in progress which justify those who say that the process for solving the Cyprus problem will be intensified before the end of the year.

Eroglu was accompanied by a large delegation which also included high ranking members of the Immovable Property Commission, Eroglu’s advisor on housing, legal advisers, his minister of finance and his attorney general. They returned to Cyprus on the same day.

3. Turkish Foreign Ministry on the ECHR Ruling
According to Bayrak television, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said that the recent compensation ruling of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) against Turkey does not question the effectiveness of the Immoveable Property Commission established in the TRNC as a domestic remedy.

The ECHR ruled that Turkey should pay a total of 15,001,498 Euros in respect of pecuniary and non-pecuniary damages and a total of 160,375 Euros for costs and expenses with regard to 19 cases submitted by Greek Cypriot applicants.

“Greek Cypriots can either apply to the Commission in the TRNC for their property cases or wait for a political agreement to be reached on the Cyprus issue,” the spokesperson for the Turkish Foreign Ministry, Selcuk Unal, said.

He noted that the door is open for appeal to the ruling at the Grand Chamber of ECHR.Reminding that 727 cases have been brought to the Immoveable Property Commission so far, Unal pointed out that 189 of these cases have been concluded. He added that there were two more property cases pending with the ECHR which were submitted before the ruling in favour of the Immoveable Property Commission.

4. Bagis says Turkey has made innumerable initiatives on Cyprus
In statements on the Cyprus problem during the 65th meeting of the Joint EU Turkish Parliamentary Committee last week, Turkish State Minister and Chief Negotiator with the EU, Egemen Bagis said that the Turkish side has always supported the solution of the Cyprus problem and has undertaken “innumerable initiatives” in this direction.

According to Turkish Cypriot daily Kibris, responding to questions of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) on the Cyprus problem, Bagis recalled the EU “promise” to the TRNC to lift its isolation when it accepted the Annan Plan. Bagis said that the EU could not expect any “new step” by Turkey when the Union does not implement its own decisions.

According to the paper, when Greek Cypriot MEPs said that they expect from Turkey to take a constructive step, Bagis asked them whether they are ready to repeat the negotiations held in 2004 in Burgenstock, with the aim of finding a solution in Cyprus. “If you have the courage, come and let us carry out the meeting in Burgenstock again”.

When the Greek Cypriot MEPs called for the withdrawal of the Turkish occupation troops from the island, Bagis said that Turkey had attempted to withdraw its troops, but the Greek Cypriots rejected this by saying ´no´ to the Annan Plan, which provided that initially 950 Greek soldiers and 650 Turkish soldiers would remain on the island and that later all the troops would be withdrawn with a referendum held at the beginning of 2010.